Champions League Challenge #2: Gameday Trends

Graeme
By
Posted: September 30, 2014


You might remember our last Champions League Challenge. We went with Gameday 1 trends, and we came ridiculously close to a massive profit. Instead were were pretty much breakeven with a slight loss of about a unit.

Well it’s September 30th, 2014 and that means it’s gameday 2 for the Champions League, and so we’re going to be doing another challenge. Just like last time out we’re going to focus on the previous two years of the Champions League exclusively – and look at Matchday 2 and then do some trends based on that.

As the Bayern Munich vs CSKA Moscow game kicks off early we won’t be factoring that into the betting.

We should also note little thought is actually put into this. If we win money then great – but it’s just an excuse to be degenerates and have some fun.

Champions League Challenge #2: No Clean Sheets

In 2012, 10 teams had a clean sheet on Match Day 1. Of those, only 1 team had a clean sheet on Match Day 2. In 2013, 8 teams had a clean sheet on Match Day 1. Of those, only 2 teams had a clean sheet on Match Day 2.

Teams who had a clean sheet for Match Day 1 in 2014 were:

Monaco
Zenit
Dortmund
Juventus
Barcelona
Porto
Athletic
Shaktar

So we will put all 4 teams in 4 accumulators. Now we can’t do Monaco & Zenit together as they’re in the same game, so we’ll add Both teams to score on that one.

Dortmund No Clean Sheet, Juventus No Clean Sheet, Monaco vs Zenit BTTS: 2.72/1.

Barcelona No Clean Sheet, Athletic No Clean Sheet, Shaktar vs FC Porto BTTS: 3.16/1.

One nice thing is it worked out well – 4 of the 8 teams play on Tuesday, 4 of the 8 teams play on Wednesday! Gotta love that.

Champions League Challenge #2: No Draws

We see less and less draws at this stage. Last season, out of the 16 games just 3 of them ended in a draw. The previous year it was the same result – 3 games ended in a draw.

So as we’re missing out on the Munich game and have 15 games to bet on, we’ll do 5 teams in a parlay for no draw.

Here’s what we have:

Apoel Nicosia or Ajax, BATE Borisov or Athletic, Man City or Roma, PSG or Bareclona, Schalke or NK Maribor: 2.22/1.

Shakhtar or Porto, Sporting or Chelsea, Zenit or Monaco, Anderlecht or Dortmund, Arsenal or Galatasaray: 2.45/1

Athletico or Juventus, Basel or Liverpool, Leverkusen or Benfica, Ludogorets or Real Madrid, Malmo or Olympiakos: 2.15/1

So that’s two challenges. I think that should be just about enough for us for this time out. Missing out on CSKA vs Munich was disappointing and it stopped us from doing much more analysis. We’ll have to do a lot more for the next time – and we promise there will be another challenge! We plan on doing challenges for every matchday in the UEFA Champions League for the 2014/2015 season.

Right that’s it – enjoy the football today lads.

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