2016 MLB Win Totals Betting Tips (Part Three)

Vin
By
Posted: April 1, 2016


In our final MLB Win Totals preview we look at the final nine teams totals including some potential World Series contenders. The monsters of the NL Central look to stay strong while the Nationals are looking at a big turn around. All win total odds courtesy of Bovada.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 86.5 EVEN
Under 86.5 -130

The Pirates have won 88 games in each of the last three seasons, but after losing A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton, Joakim Soria, and Neil Walker this offseason the projections have them a bit lower. I don’t agree with that and I like them to go over 86.5 wins. They added John Jason to play first with .300 hitting prospect Josh Bell waiting in the wings to take over if things go bad. They could add 10 strikeouts/game pitcher Tyler Glasnow to the rotation who could be the rookie of the year this season. Polanco hasn’t hit his potential yet and McCutcheon is one of the best in baseball. This team still has a bright future.

San Diego Padres
Over 73.5 -115
Under 73.5 -115

One of the most disappointing teams last season gave up their closer Craig Kimbrell and their best hitter in Justin Upton. Another 88-loss season seems likely.

San Fransisco Giants
Over 89.5 -115
Under 89.5 -115

This is a team that has won the World Series in every even year this decade. They had a great team last season that struggled with injuries. They should be very good again this year. They could even win the World Series.

Seattle Mariners 
Over 82.5 -115
Under 82.5 -115

This is one of my favorite bets out there. They upgraded the bullpen and the rotation, but more importantly they greatly improved their outfield defense. Seattle’s outfield is one of the most spacious in baseball and being able to cover the whole thing is key to their success. Nori Aoki and Leonys Martin should do a good job covering a lot of ground. If Tajuan Walker breaks out like people seem to think he could and become that dominant starter behind King Felix, this team could be very interesting. Over 82.5 wins.

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St. Louis Cardinals
Over 87.5 EVEN
Under 87.5 -130

It really feels as if the Cardinals run of devil magic is going to run out this season. They lost Heyward and John Lackey to the Cubs. They are getting Adam Wainwright back, but I don’t know. It feels like their luck should be running out. I’m not ready to go under here, but I am watching this team.

Tampa Bay Rays
Over 81.5 -115
Under 81.5 -115

Pitching and defense! PECOTA actually predicts the Rays to win the East thanks to their pitching and defense. It would be unexpected, but not surprising. The Rays build very solid teams every year and they manage to steal wins thanks to their outstanding pitching and defense combos. I like them to go over 81.5 wins, but winning the East seems a bit much.

Texas Rangers
Over 84.5 EVEN
Under 84.5 -130

Conventional wisdom would have the Rangers a bit higher with a full season of Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish coming back from injury, but the projection systems have them falling off from their 88-win season of last year. This is a team like the Yankees that I can see winning 88 or I can see them winning 78. The total of 84.5 will be missed, I’m just not sure which way.

Toronto Blue Jays 
Over 87.5 -115
Under 87.5 -115

The crazy, homer happy offense is still intact, but the rotation is a big question mark. JA Happ and RA Dickey are penciled into the rotation after Marcus Stroman, Jesse Chavez and Marco Estrada. There is a lot of risk in that staff with older players and players with shaky track records. The same can be said about the bullpen. I like the Jays to be near the top of the standings this season, but 88 or more wins could be tough this year. They are an injury or two away from being last year’s Tigers.

Washington Nationals
Over 89.5 -115
Under 89.5 -115

The Nationals have some of the best talent in all of baseball, but there is just something about them that makes you think it won’t work. Last year was a disaster with the team underperforming and Jonathan Palpebon picking dugout fights with Bryce Harper. They brought in Dusty Baker as manager who “knows how to win”, but he’s 66 years old and was out of touch with baseball ten years ago. The modern game has passed him by and I think this is going to go badly. Betting under 89.5 wins and hoping for more Harper interviews to put Baker on blast.


Best Bets:

  • Seattle Mariners Over 82.5 Wins
  • Tampa Bay Rays Over 81.5 Wins

Good Bets:

  • Pittsburgh Pirates Over 86.5 Wins
  • Washington Nationals Under 89.5 Wins
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