September 27th, 2016 Betting Tips: MLB

Vin
By
Posted: September 27, 2016


Six games is all we have left in the 2016 MLB regular season. All of the divisions are locked up with the AL East the only one that isn’t “official”, but the Red Sox six game lead with six games remaining is about as close to locked up as you can get it. The focus is on the Wild Card in these last two weeks and one race is exciting while the other is not so much.

The less interesting race is the National League one as the Cardinals, Giants and Mets all fight for two spots in the playoffs. The Giants are in the midst of one of the biggest collapses we have ever seen. They held the best record in baseball heading into the All-Star break, but now just hold a one game lead over the Cardinals for the second Wild Card. The Cardinals haven’t really been able to put too many wins together themselves while the Mets, now in the driver’s seat, aren’t anywhere close to the same team they were last year. The Mets should be in while the other team will limp in.

The fun stuff comes in the American League where the Jays and Orioles are currently in the Wild Card positions, but are being chased closely by the Mariners, Tigers and Astros. The interesting thing here is that the Jays and Orioles are starting a three game series today and someone has to lose those games. That opens the door for one of these other teams and the last weekend could be very interesting. In that last weekend the Orioles will face the Yankees who aren’t quite eliminated, but need something crazy to happen and will likely settle for playing spoilers. The Jays, who would seem to be in control, have this series against the Orioles and then finish up against Boston. These two teams who have seemingly been in control all year long have a good chance of missing out on the postseason before the season ends on Sunday. Stay tuned.

MLB Betting Tips:

We’ll start off with the big Baltimore and Toronto game that takes place tonight. A lot has been written about Aaron Sanchez’s innings this season and he is setting career highs with every start. Looking at his monthly splits, he is showing clear signs of fatigue. He’s having his worst month in strikeouts percentage, walk percentage, homeruns per nine and, naturally, FIP. He does pitch better at home, but it’s hard to like the way he is trending. He’ll go against Kevin Gausman who is trending in the opposite way and having his best FIP month of the season. Both of these offenses are dangerous so we’ll call that a wash and go with the starter and bullpen. That person is clearly Gausman and that bullpen is clearly Batlimore’s. Orioles +130 is the play.

The other big game with Wild Card consequences tonight is the Astros hosting the Mariners. These two teams played an 11-inning thriller last night and I would expect more of the same tonight. The Mariners send ace Felix Hernandez to the mound who is coming off his best start of the season against the Jays. He’ll be helped by the Astros beat-up offense tonight as they are falling apart at the right time. They’ll be without Rasmus and Bregman, Altuve will play but he’s been banged up a lot lately. While Mike Fiers goes for the Astros and the Mariners should be licking their lips at that match-up. He’s a soft tossing righty with a 4.53 FIP. The Mariners are 10th in OPS against righty pitchers. This game could be the end of the Astros slim playoff hopes, but I think the Mariners +118 just have the match-up to take it.

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