July 20th, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

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And we’re back!

I’ve gotta be honest, it felt pretty good to take a couple of days off. The MLB season is a grind with games every single day and a couple of days off was really refreshing. I’m ready for it to be back now though and ready to get back to making money!

I had mentioned before the break that I wanted to take a look at some MLB Futures, but there was only one that really jumped out at me. That’s the Nationals +190 to win the AL East. This team has definitely underperformed in the the first half and I think they’ll have a good second half. The Braves and Phillies are having nice seasons, but the Nationals have more talent and have been there before. This race should be close, but I think they are better than a 2/1 likelihood.

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Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

I really don’t like this match-up for Matt Boyd. He has a 4.76 ERA/4.27 FIP on the season, but he has a high flyball rate and low BABIP that will come back. He faces a really dangerous offense with Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez who can swing this game in a single swing.

He goes against David Price who is having some struggles this year (by his standards) with a 4.42 ERA/4.38 FIP. The big problem for him has been the homerun with a 1.5 HR/9. The Tigers are one of the lesser teams in the game, but they actually are above average against lefties. This feels like a great spot for an over as the system thinks this line should be a full run higher than it is.

Bet Tigers/Red Sox over 8.5 runs at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

The Indians were one of the hottest teams heading into the break and today they get to face Martin Perez in Texas. There will be runs. Martin Perez has only made six starts this year, but he has a 7.67 ERA/6.73 FIP and has just looked hittable. The Indians are one of the top hitting offenses against lefites with a 107 wRC+ and I like them a lot today.

I was originally leaning over here, but Trevor Bauer has been great this season and the Indians have made some moves to upgrade the bullpen in a major way. They are just clicking on all cylinders and I am going to lay the runs here.

Bet Indians -1.5 (-135) at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

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Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

Robbie Ray is having a solid season – IF you take out his home starts. He has been brutal at home this year. In 20 innings he has a 7.97 ERA/7.62 FIP/3.71 xFIP on the year and is facing the Rockies who hit lefties very well with a 97 wRC+.

German Marquez has been a much better pitcher on the road than at home, but I’m not sure I buy it. A 2.62 ERA/3.58 FIP on the road and a 4.81 ERA/4.43 FIP overall. I think that Chase Field is a hard place to hit and the Diamondbacks offense is a tough offense at home. This feels like a great spot for an over.

Bet Rockies/Diamondbacks over 7.5 runs at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

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