July 28th, 2020 MLB Betting Tips: Dodgers-Astros, Padres-Giants

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A 1-1 record last night.

The Red Sox definitely had their opportunities last night, but a 7-0 hole is a hard thing to dig out of. I went in thinking that Zack Godley would be the follower, he ended up pitching four shutout innings in this one, but the team went with Jeffrey Springs instead and he got pounded for five runs. That was all she wrote.

Our other tip was the Houston Astros who we laid the runs against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners got an early 3-0 lead, but the Astros immediately took it back with a four-run third. They then scored another in the fourth and three in the fifth to clinch this one. Altuve and Bregman both had big games.

A lot of games tonight and we have three picks for you. Let’s get into it.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures SportsBetting.ag
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros Betting Tips:

Dodgers: Walker Buehler 3.26 ERA/3.01 FIP
Astros: Framber Valdez 5.86 ERA/4.98 FIP

Valdez is a pitcher who has great stuff, but has really struggled with his control thus far in his major league career. In his 70.2 innings in 2019 he had a 5.60 BB/9 rate and that is not a situation you want to get yourself in against a team like the Dodgers. With walk numbers like that and a career 1.0 HR/9 rate, this could be a very tough day for Valdez and the Astros.

That is especially true when you realize they are facing Walker Buehler, the ace of the Dodgers. He had a fantastic season last year and there is no reason to think he won’t continue on that trajectory. It’s unsure how deep he is going to go in this one as he was heavily protected in summer camp, but the Dodgers bullpen rates as much better than the Astros.

These offenses are both very good, but Buehler just grades out as way, way better than Valdez here and the Dodgers should be able to grab the win here.

Bet Dodgers -137

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:

Padres: Zach Davies 3.55 ERA/4.56 FIP
Giants: Jeff Samardzija 3.52 ERA/4.59 FIP

The system likes the Padres very much here and just taking a cursory glance at the 2020 stats and it’s easy to see why. The Padres have a 130 wRC+ on the season thus far. With wRC+ 100 is league average and everything above that is good, everything below 100 is bad. Their opponent today has a 64 wRC+. Of course, match-ups matter and the Giants just finished a series with the Dodgers and the Padres faced the Diamondbacks, two far different pitching staffs, but all of the projections are matching up with the system here.

So while these two pitchers have very similar stats, the system is all over the Padres in this one. We are expecting a major regression from Samardzija this year as last season he was very lucky with a .240 batting average on balls in play. So while Davies pretty much is what he is, we can see things getting much worse for the Shark man.

Bet Padres -143

All that said, Zach Davies is not very good either. While he should get an artificial bump from moving from the Brewers to the Padres, I wouldn’t expect much out of him and I do think he will give up some runs today. Him plus Samardzija and the system sees this one going over 9 runs.

The system does take into account park factor so for the system to go this high at this park means this should be a big one. This total opened at 7.5 and if you can get that number, take it. As it is we are going over 8 runs.

Bet Padres/Giants Over 8 Runs

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