June 17th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

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A 1-1 record on Saturday.

We were three outs away from a 2-0 night. We took the Braves over the Phillies and they entered the ninth with a 5-4 lead on the Phillies. A single, a sacrifice bunt, an error on that play, and another single lead to two runs and a Phillies win. Flukey.

The other game we took was the Mets over the Cardinals and this one nearly saw the bullpen blow it as well. At the end of the sixth, the Mets had a commanding 8-3 lead. Then they just let the Mets chip away and by the ninth it was 8-6. The Mets added one more and nearly tied it when Jack Flaherty tried to take home on a double, but he was gunned out at the plate to end the game. That Mets bullpen is always an adventure.

No tips yesterday. Back with two tips today.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

  Team Name FIP-
AWAY Phillies Jake Arrieta 114
HOME Nationals Patrick Corbin 89

This play is all about Patrick Corbin. He has a respectable 4.11 ERA/3.90 FIP on the season with good strikeout numbers, but it is at home where he has truly shined. In his home starts, he’s posted a 2.32 ERA/2.46 FIP for the season. The Phillies offense is about average versus lefties this season and the offense overall has been quiet of late.

You can’t say that about the Nats who have a 110 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Throw in Jake Arrieta who is having a bad time this year. He has a 4.31 ERA/5.04 FIP on the year, but those numbers are at 4.85 ERA/5.58 FIP over his past five starts. He’s hittbale now. Throw in a Phillies bullpen that has been bad all season and awful of late, and I’m all over the Nats here.

Bet Nationals -135

Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

  Team Name FIP-
AWAY Indians Mike Clevinger 90
HOME Rangers Lance Lynn 64

So, Lance Lynn is awesome now? He has a 4.40 ERA/3.06 FIP with good strikeout numbers and low walks, and a low HR/9 rate. Over his last five starts, he has a 3.45 ERA/1.46 FIP and has jumped his strikeouts over 12K/9. Wow. He faces an Indians offense that has heated up of late, but still has just a .716 OPS/86 wRC+ against right handed pitching this season.

He faced Mike Clevinger who is making just his third start since coming off the injured list. Clevinger had a breakout last year and has looked good thus far this season as he’s yet to allow a run. I think that ends tonight as this Rangers offense can really pack some punch.

Bet Rangers +113