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Four MLB System picks for May 12th, 2021.
A 3-1 record last night.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Duffy | 2 | 108 | 94 | 102 | 115 | 25 | 139 | 29 |
| DET | 77 | 86 | 123 | 91 | 77 | 30 | 81 | 27 |
| Casey Mize | 5.34 | 123 | 80 | 91 | 135 | 30 | 136 | 27 |
| KCR | 92 | 89 | 93 | 99 | 92 | 20 | 90 | 19 |
Danny Duffy has had a great start to the season with a 1.26 ERA/2.43 FIP. He’s been a big lucky, but he has a huge strikeout rate and the Tigers rank as the worst team in baseball against left handed pitching. They have just a .485 OPS on the season against lefties. For comparison, the Tigers have a .713 OPS against righties.
Casey Mize is having a tough year so far. Really low strikeout numbers, high walks, and a 4.41 ERA/5.34 FIP. The Royals should be able to score on him early.
Pick: Bet Royals -0.5 First Five Innings
Canada: Best Odds: Royals 1.66 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: Royals -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: Royals 1.66 at SportsBetting.ag- 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/12 10:07:07 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 3.1 | 102 | 96 | 56 | 101 | 14 | 116 | 21 |
| ATL | 122 | 101 | 102 | 100 | 12 | 109 | 7 | |
| Max Fried | 5.54 | 86 | 101 | 107 | 102 | 15 | 117 | 22 |
| TOR | 118 | 95 | 94 | 99 | 13 | 121 | 3 |
Fried has had some really rough starts to start the season. He’s had two good ones and two starts of 5+ runs allowed. He’s had some bad luck early, but his 8.44 ERA/5.54 FIP is still not good. A tiny sample size and all that, but the Jays offense is dangerous and they have hit lefties well this season.
I don’t expect this to last, but as of this writing the Braves are the second worst offense in baseball against lefties. They have just a .577 OPS on the year and Ryu is a tough pitcher. He has a 3.31 ERA/3.10 FIP on the season which is pretty much in line with what the projections have him at.
Pick: Bet Blue Jays Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: Blue Jays 1.91 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: Blue Jays +106 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: Blue Jays 1.95 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/12 10:07:07 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.A. Happ | 3.84 | 101 | 88 | 102 | 117 | 27 | 151 | 30 |
| CHW | 74 | 97 | 117 | 110 | 5 | 99 | 14 | |
| Dallas Keuchel | 4.5 | 91 | 77 | 94 | 87 | 3 | 78 | 6 |
| MIN | 115 | 101 | 97 | 107 | 6 | 120 | 5 |
Two of the best offenses in the American League face off here against two non-elite pitchers. I think we are going to see some runs. The White Sox have a huge 137 wRC+ against lefties on the season while the Twins have a 106 wRC+ against righties. The Twins offense is really on fire over the past two weeks.
Happ has been very lucky early and his luck will run out. He has a low strikeout rate and a 1.91 ERA/3.84 FIP on the year. He’s got by with a low BABIP, but that won’t last. Keuchel is a big groundball guy which is always dangerous, but his control hasn’t been there early and his strikeout rate is worse than ever.
Nothing to get excited about on the pitching side, a ton to get excited about on the hitting side. Bet the over.
Pick: Bet Twins/White Sox Over
Canada: Best Odds: Over 8 (1.99) at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: Over 8 (EVEN) at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: Over 8 (2.00) at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/12 10:07:07 AM EST but are subject to change.)
