May 7th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Vin

Five MLB System picks for May 7th, 2021.

I’ve updated the tables that post with the match-ups to reflect some more of the stats that the MLB System looks at when making picks.

I also added a guide if you aren’t familiar with some of the stats listed.

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

What are these stats?

Washington Nationals at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
WSN Patrick Corbin 7.52 116 104 97 104 16 98 14
  NYY   114 96 138 105 6 128 1
NYY Jameson Taillon 4.22 127 91 71 74 2 78 5
  WSN   80 98 80 91 20 90 21

Yankees against a lefty alert!

The Yankees have had their struggles early, but against lefties they have still been that team that we know. They are crushing teams with a 125 wRC+ against left handed pitching. Corbin has been awful early with some real bad starts with a 8.10 ERA/7.52 FIP and low strikeouts, high walks, and high homeruns. He’s not quite that bad, but he doesn’t exactly have it easy today either.

Taillon is a solid starter and the Nationals have shown no pop against right handed pitching this season. The Yankees should roll here.

Pick: Bet Yankees -1.5 (+113)

Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
ARI Zac Gallen 2.86 105 118 102 117 25 110 18
  NYM 97 66 97 103 97 18 99 12
NYM David Peterson 4.5 98 91 114 66 1 55 1
  ARI 99 111 98 102 99 13 101 10

The Mets offense is not one I fully trust yet and they are facing a solid pitcher in Zac Gallen today. He has a 3.48 ERA/2.86 FIP on the season with a big strikeout rate. The Mets offense doesn’t look that bad on paper, but they have been one of lowest homerun hitting teams thus far. This is a three true outcomes (walks, strikeouts, homers) league now and the Mets are going to fail two of the three today.

Arizona has absolutely crushed lefties early and David Peterson isn’t that good. An easy 5-inning pick here.

Pick: Bet Diamondbacks -105 First 5 Innings

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
CHW Carlos Rodon 2.18 102 113 134 93 6 106 17
  KCR 98 89 91 100 98 16 94 18
KCR Brad Keller 6.01 95 73 115 120 28 136 28
  CHW 111 74 97 118 111 2 110 7

Brad Keller has been crushed early with a 8.06 ERA/6.01 FIP. He’s not that bad, but he’s coming off an ugly start against the Twins. The White Sox tagged him for four runs earlier this season.

Rodon has been dominant early with a 0.72 ERA/2.18 FIP and the Royals are a below average offense against lefties. Easy pick.

Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)

Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
COL Austin Gomber 4.65 126 101 143 115 24 122 25
  STL 93 108 101 82 93 19 90 21
STL Jack Flaherty 3.28 92 122 88 95 8 82 8
  COL 82 100 102 80 82 29 98 13

This is the Rockies right now: bad bullpen, weak offense, and bad starter on the mound.

This is the Cardinals right now: one of their best starters on the mound, solid bullpen that is playing well of late, and offense that crushes lefties.

This ain’t rocket science.

Pick: Bet Cardinals -1.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
LAD Julio Urias 2.81 101 112 88 103 15 111 20
  LAA 110 118 91 78 110 3 100 11
LAA Griffin Canning 5.41 131 106 104 104 16 120 24
  LAD 110 105 102 119 110 3 102 9

It just feels like the offense is going to play here. These have been two of the best offenses in the game thus far this season and it is going to be difficult to keep them from scoring runs.

I like the Dodgers better because of the match-up with Canning. He has 6.20 ERA/5.41 FIP on the year with walks and homeruns being an issue. That is not the issue you want to have against the Dodgers.

Urias’ stats look great and he is a very talented pitcher, but he’s not exactly faced a murderer’s row of offenses thus far this season. This will be by far his toughest match-up and I expect his ERA to be higher tomorrow than it is today.

Pick: Bet Angels/Dodgers Over 8.5

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