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The first quarter final to take place in Euro 2016 will be Poland vs Portugal which takes place on June 30th, 2016. The winner will face the winner of the Wales vs Belgium match.
Portugal got here after a victory over Croatia – Quaresma scoring in the dying minutes of extra time. It wasn’t a good performance by the Portugese. It honestly looked like they were playing for penalties and they were really lacking in attack. It was a surprise too as they weren’t dominated in possession – they had 40% of it but just didn’t do much at all. To be fair Croatia didn’t either. However if Portugal are going to go all the way they’re going to have to show a much stronger attack.
Poland meanwhile relied on a fair bit of luck to beat the Swiss. I had said in my betting preview for that game that the game was there for the taking for Switzerland – they just had to put on a lot of pressure as I really didn’t rate the Polish defense. It took Poland scoring for that to happen but we all saw it – Switzerland could have won that game 2-1 or 3-1 if not for some bad luck.
So we’ve got quite a tough one here. In my opinion if Portugal push the game and hassle the Polish defense they can quite easily win this one. But they didn’t do that against Croatia – will tactics change for this one? Before we get into that let’s get to the betting odds for Portugal vs Poland:
Poland vs Portugal Match Betting Odds:
Poland: 3/1, 4.00, +300
Portugal: 5/4, 2.25, +200
Draw: 2/1, 3.00, +125
Poland vs Portugal Match Betting Tips:
This is a very very tough one to call – but I’m going to go with draw after 90 minutes.
It can be frustrating watching because I know that Portugal have what it takes to abolutely destroy Poland. They have some great players who aren’t the same quality as Ronaldo but offer a dynamic attack that could be fantastic to watch.
But Portugal don’t do pressure. We saw it against Croatia. It was like they were happy to let time run out right from the beginning and they played for the draw. Maybe they respected Croatia too much? I know after Croatias first game I actually bet them to win the Euros as they looked lethal. But there’s respect and there’s the way Portugal looked allergic to the opponents penalty box.
I think we’ll see the same here. Poland don’t have much of a dynamic attack either. They do like to push early and get an early goal and then sit back – but it’s not a solid pressing game more just some slight pressure.
Either way I see two things happening – either both teams take it slow and it’s 0-0, or Poland get that early goal and then Portugal tie it up and then both teams are too scared to risk anything else.
Either way it just seems the draw is written all over this one.
Poland vs Portugal Prop Bets:
I said it in my analysis above – but I can see Poland getting an early goal and then Portugal pushing. Poland scored before half time against Switzerland and they scored goals before the hour mark against Ukraine and Northern Ireland.
Poland did it a few times in qualification too – like against Ireland and Scotland. Granted quite a few of the games that goal comes in the second half before the hour mark – but the math I’ve did suggests that Poland-Draw true odds is around 12/1. We’re getting 16/1 on that at the sportsbooks listed below – so that’s what I am suggesting here. A small value play on Poland-Draw.