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Most teams are at about 9 or 10 games so the Bet MLB System is going to start taking recent performance into account. This will be a boost to teams like the Reds, Red Sox, and Astros who have come out hitting the ball very well early. While the Marlins, Brewers and Rangers will be dinged for their poor early bullpen performance. These stats are volatile early, but they are worth taking into account.
I have changed the way these posts look to give you more data about each game. These are some of the stats I use to make these picks. The stats are pitcher FIP- (projection for now), team wRC+ (projection), wRC+ last 14 days, bullpen FIP- (projection), bullpen FIP- last 14 days, and park factor. I’ve also included where they rank compared to the rest of the league. If you’re new to these stats, 100 is average. For hitters over 100 is good, for pitchers under 100 is good.
Let me know what you think or if there is anything you’d like to see added. I’m on twitter @MLBTips.
Four tips today, let’s get into it.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bovada |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bovada |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bovada |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | Gerrit Cole | 64 | 117 | 2nd | 99 | 12 | 92 | 6th | 45 | 1st | |
| TOR | Robbie Ray | 92 | 108 | 6th | 85 | 22nd | 101 | 24th | 133 | 25th | 104 |
Standard Gerrit Cole is awesome bet here with the added bonus of Robbie Ray against the Yankees.
Ray had a huge 2.33 HR/9 rate last season. It is a small sample, but it’s not a fluke as his HR/9 rate has been rising over the past few years. The Yankees are one of the best homerun hitting teams in baseball.
Cole has been excellent thus far this season with a 1.46 ERA/1.28 FIP in his two starts this year.
Bet Yankees -0.5 First 5 Innings(-130)
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Chase Anderson | 116 | 104 | 12th | 93 | 15th | 100 | 19th | 93 | 9th | |
| NYM | David Peterson | 91 | 112 | 3rd | 93 | 15th | 89 | 2nd | 85 | 6th | 92 |
Chase Anderson is not very good and I like the Mets offense a lot more against righties than I do against lefties. This team is loaded with lefty boppers and they should be able to get things done here today. Anderson had a huge 2.94 HR/9 rate last season.
Peterson is a solid starter and the Mets bullpen behind him has been one of the best in the NL. The Mets should get the win in this NL East battle tonight.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | Alex Cobb | 107 | 106 | 10th | 107 | 8th | 98 | 14th | 86 | 7th | |
| KCR | Brady Singer | 97 | 94 | 25th | 100 | 11th | 100 | 21st | 107 | 15th | 103 |
The Angels offense has looked great with Mike Trout ready to get back to winning MVPs. They get a nice match-up with Brady Singer here. He’s a solid young pitcher, but it’s doubtful that he goes deep into this one and the Royals bullpen is hittable.
I don’t trust Alex Cobb whatsoever. He doesn’t get many strikeouts and he had a 4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP last season. I think the Royals can hit him today and get this game into an easy over.
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Casey Mize | 97 | 94 | 25th | 72 | 28th | 106 | 28th | 131 | 24th | |
| HOU | Zack Greinke | 82 | 110 | 5th | 136 | 2nd | 98 | 15th | 111 | 19th | 100 |
A very lopsided match-up here. Mize has a lot of potential, but he is not going to go deep here and the bullpen behind him is dreadful. The Astros offense has been on fire early and this match-up should allow them to continue that run.
The Tigers offense is unlikely to do Mize any favors here and they draw a tough match-up with Zack Greinke. He had a 4.03 ERA/2.80 FIP last season and he has looked solid early.
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