April 16th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

No tips yesterday, but we’re back with five today.

Yesterday was one of those days where the system didn’t like much, but it made me feel good about the system. A lot of the system’s projections were right in line with where the betting lines were so I know that the system is on the right track.

A new weekend of new series with some good match-ups. I should have tips tomorrow, but I’ll have to do them early as I am getting my second COVID-19 vaccination shot. I expect that to knock me right out so I’ll need to get them in early. I will be off Sunday.

Friday night is a great night for baseball. Let’s make some money!

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:


Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
ARI Taylor Widener 102 96 21 95 16 100 23 101 12
WSN Max Scherzer 71 104 12 95 16 100 19 111 22 103

This tip is all about Max Scherzer. He’s had a somewhat rough start to the season with tough match-ups against the Braves and Dodgers. I think he has to be licking his lips at this match-up against the Diamondbacks, an offense that he can dominate. He’s at home and the Diamondbacks are a below average offense.

There is nothing all that exciting about Widener and I think the Nationals offense will be able to hit him, even if Juan Soto has to do it by himself.

Bet Nationals -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)

Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:


Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
CLE Logan Allen 111 99 17 78 27 97 13 90 9
CIN Jeff Hoffman 100 96 21 117 3 105 27 116 24 105

The Reds offense has played very well early with a big 117 wRC+ thus far. I love this match-up for them against the weak lefty. As a team they have a .262 isolated slugging against lefties on the season.

Jeff Hoffman does give me a bit of pause, but he’s been solid in his first two starts. Maybe it’s just a case of getting away from Coors Field for him. Plus, it helps that the Indians offense has struggled mightily early.

Bet Reds -123

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New York Mets at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:


Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
NYM Jacob deGrom 60 112 3 108 7 89 2 68 2
COL Chi Chi Gonzalez 123 86 30 64 29 110 30 120 26 116

For his career, Chi Chi Gonzalez has a 5.03 ERA/5.27 FIP with a 1.11 HR/9 rate and only 5.51 K/9. He stinks and he is the kind of pitcher that is going to get absolutely smashed this season. The Mets offense has had a slow start, but Coors Field and Gonzalez should be the key to what ails them.

Pulling a trick from my NBA toolbox for this one as we’re only going to bet on the Mets to go over.

Bet Mets Over 6 Runs (-110)

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:


Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
MIN Lewis Thorpe 98 111 4 106 8 98 15 90 9
LAA Andrew Heaney 80 106 10 109 6 98 14 87 7 101

Thorpe has not looked good in his little time in the major leagues. In his 44 innings of career work, he has a 6.14 ERA/4.77 FIP with a huge walk rate and a 1.43 HR/9 rate. The projections are a bit kinder to him, he is a bit more experienced, but I’ll believe it when I see it. This is a tough match-up for him and I think the Angels will hit early.

I’m much higher on Andrew Heaney. He had a rough time in his first start, but bounced back strong against Toronto with six shutout innings and nine strikeouts. The Twins are a tough offense, but so are the Blue Jays and I think he can hang on here.

Bet Angels First 5 Innings (-135)

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:


Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
HOU Jose Urquidy 101 110 5 127 2 98 15 104 14
SEA Yusei Kikuchi 93 96 21 102 10 99 18 106 16 95

These are two hot offenses going against two pitchers that I don’t fully trust. Urquidy is the definition of league average and Kikuchi is one of the more up-and-down starters in the league.

For the season, the Astros ranks second in wRC+ with the Mariners ranking tenth. Both bullpens have their weaknesses as well and I think this one can easily go over.

Bet Astros/Mariners Over 8 Runs

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