April 17th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

A nice 3-1 record last night!

We took the Reds and this one was over by the third inning. The Reds scored 7 runs in the bottom of the third and never looked back, winning 10-3.

The Mariners and Astros had a total set at just 8 runs, but the final score ended up being a Mariners win at 6-5. Yusei Kikuchi of the Mariners had a good start going until he was sent out for the seventh inning. His pitch count was low, but the third time through the order is a nightmare. That move ended well for us though.

We also took the Angels first five inning line and it came in, 2-0. The Angels offense went crazy late and ended up winning this one 10-3. It’s always nice to see a blow out like that, especially when it leads to Willians Astudillo pitching. (Click that link for a forty-six MPH pitch.)

The loss of the night was the Nationals -0.5 as they failed to score a run. The Mets/Rockies game was rained out.

Three tips tonight!

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures SportsBetting.ag
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
BAL Dean Kremer 114 95 24 81 25 106 29 109 20
TEX Dane Dunning 90 91 28 93 21 101 24 125 27 100

The Rangers aren’t a team you’ll be seeing me take very often, but they look like a nice bet here.

Dean Kremer stinks. He doesn’t have the biggest sample size, but walks have been a major problem in his major league career. He’s been hit pretty hard in his first two starts of the year with seven runs allowed in just six innings.

The Rangers will send Dane Dunning, a pitcher that the projections are a lot higher on. He’s only allowed one run in his two starts this season with a big strikeout rate. The Orioles offense has just an 81 wRC+ on the season thus far.

Bet Rangers First 5 Innings (-135)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
PIT Trevor Cahill 97 89 29 97 12 103 26 103 13
MIL Brett Anderson 100 99 17 77 28 95 10 126 28 100

I almost never take the runs on the runline, but this looks like a good spot for it.

The Brewers offense has really come out sluggish to start the year and I can easily see this thing being 0-0 after five innings. The team has played their last few without Christian Yelich and that is just a huge hole in their offense. Cahill is decent enough to get it done here.

Pittsburgh has hit well early and Brett Anderson has had some major struggles. His strikeout numbers are almost non-existent and he’s allowed three homeruns on the season. The Pirates can take the early part of this game.

Bet Pirates +0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
MIN Matt Shoemaker 103 111 4 106 8 98 15 90 9
LAA Jose Quintana 98 106 10 109 6 98 14 87 7 101

The Angels are killing it right now and I don’t have much faith in Matt Shoemaker against his former team. He had a 4.71 ERA/5.95 FIP last season and hasn’t been much better in his first two starts. Homeruns are always a problem for him and the Angels can hit them.

Jose Quintana is a tough one as he’s pitched 15 innings over the past two seasons. He’s gotten hit very hard in his first two starts with four runs allowed and five runs allowed. He probably won’t be this bad forever, but the Twins offense is no joke and they should be able to do it to him here again.

Bet Angels/Twins Over 9 Runs

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