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Four MLB tips for April 22nd, 2022. Two more tips available on Patreon.
1-1 record in MLB last night, 23-23 on the season.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
STL – Steven Matz 3.82 ERA/3.79 FIP (2021)
CIN – Hunter Greene 4.62 ERA/4.42 FIP (2021)
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The Cardinals offense has started hot and the System likes them against the young pitcher. Greene has posted some big strikeout numbers, but he’s also struggled with the homerun ball. His home park won’t help him out here today and the Cardinals have hit the ball very well early.
Matz is a fine pitcher and the Reds haven’t really done much of anything on offense early.
Pick: Cardinals First 5 Innings Moneyline (-120)
I also like the over in this one as it is set about a run too low according to the System. It’s going to be nice weather for this game and neither bullpen has performed well early in the season.
Pick: Cardinals/Reds Over 7.5 (-113)
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
MIA – Trevor Rogers 2.64 EA/2.55 FIP (2021)
ATL – Kyle Wright 4.46 ERA/4.29 FIP (Projected)
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
TOR – Ross Stripling 4.80 ERA/5.21 FIP (2021)
HOU – Justin Verlander 3.38 ERA/3.75 FIP (2021)
This is a tricky one because Justin Verlander has been good in his first two starts, but this is the Blue Jays offense that we are talking about. They are one of the best offenses in the league and have started hot, and this will be Verlander’s toughest test of the season. The projections have homeruns being a weakness for him and this is not the team you want that weakness against. I’m not saying he’ll break, but he’ll definitely bend.
The Astros are also a great offense and Ross Stripling is a very hittable pitcher. He has a high homerun rate projection and the Astros have some tough lefties in the lineup who can punish him.
Pick: Blue Jays/Astros Over 4 First 5 Innings (-120)
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
BAL – Bruce Zimmermann 5.04 ERA/5.38 FIP (2021)
LAA – Reid Detmers 4.60 ERA/4.46 FIP (Projected)
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Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
KCR – Brad Keller 5.39 ERA/4.72 FIP (2021)
SEA- Chris Flexen 3.61 ERA/3.89 FIP (2021)
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This is a home/road pick and an offense pick. Last year Flexen was much better at home and Keller was worse on the road. No reason to think that differs this year.
The Mariners offense has been hot to start with a 121 wRC+ thus far and they hit righties better than KC hits righties.
Pick: Mariners First 5 Innings Moneyline (-130)
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