April 23rd, 2021 MLB & NBA Betting Tips

2-0 in NBA last night. 1-1 in MLB.

I was really feeling pissed about the Mariners/Red Sox as they failed on opportunities and didn’t put up the runs that I was expecting them to. I turned it off and it wasn’t until later that I looked back and saw that it went to extras and the Mariners scored four in the 10th to put it over.

A great night in the NBA with two wins. I said in the write-up that I didn’t trust the Bucks to cover that spread and they missed it by one point. The final score doesn’t reflect it, but the over actually came easily with it being hit early in the fourth quarter.

The Mavericks got us our other win beating the Lakers 115-110 in Anthony Davis’ return. Davis only ended up playing 17 minutes while Luka Doncic had a monster 30/9/8 line.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures SportsBetting.ag
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
KCR Mike Minor 89 94 25 100 11 100 20 109 20
DET Casey Mize 97 94 25 83 26 106 28 148 30 100

These teams aren’t really going much of anywhere this season, but with the Royals you can at least say they are trying. They are 10-7 on the year.

This is a pretty good pitching match-up with top prospect Casey Mize going for the Tigers. He has a ton of potential, but he’s coming off a tough start where he gave up five runs. I don’t expect him going five innings and wouldn’t be surprised if he goes less than that. The Tigers bullpen has been the worst in baseball thus far.

Mike Minor goes for the Royals. He’s had a rough start to the year, but I like this match-up a lot for him. The Tigers have been helpless against lefties early in the season and they strikeout a ton. I think he can get his season on track here and the Royals can win.

Bet Royals -113

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
TOR Steven Matz 99 108 6 89 22 101 23 96 7
TBR Tyler Glasnow 69 102 15 109 6 90 4 111 24 96

Tyler Glasnow has made four starts this year and he’s been absolutely dominant. He has a 0.73 ERA/1.03 FIP on the season and he faces a Blue Jays team that has struggled against righties early. He’s at home here which is usually a boon to starters.

The Blue Jays will send Steven Matz who has performed well with a 1.47 ERA/2.99 FIP in his first three starts. That’s great, but not as great as Glasnow. The Rays offense has been fairly strong against lefties on the season.

Bet Rays -0.5 (-125) First 5 Innings

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
SDP Yu Darvish 77 108 6 95 14 87 1 82 3
LAD Clayton Kershaw 69 119 1 116 3 90 3 97 10 95

This should be a ton of fun as when these teams played earlier this season it had a real playoff atmosphere. Crazy to say that about a series in April, but we are already there with these two juggernauts.

The Dodgers won the last match-up between these two starters and I think they will again. Kershaw has the better projection on the season and the Dodgers offense has been much better to start the season.

It might be a close one and I wouldn’t lay any runs here, but the system thinks this line should be closer to -186 than -146. A good value.

Bet Dodgers -146

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Best Odds for NBA:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
NBA Point Spreads BetOnline
NBA Over/Unders Bovada
NBA Player Futures BetOnline
NBA MVP SportsBetting.ag
NBA Championship Winner BetOnline

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors Betting Tips:

I really don’t get this line. Yes, the Nuggets have lost Jamal Murray and now have seen Monte Morris go down with an injury as well. Those injuries have hurt, but this is still one of the best teams in the West and they match-up extremely well with the Warriors.

What type of answer do the Warriors have for Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon? They can throw Draymond at one of them and then… nothing.

The Warriors are coming off a loss to the Wizards so it’s not like they are dominating of late. There is always the chance that Steph Curry will go nuclear, but outside of that – there is no reason that the Nuggets shouldn’t take this one.

Bet Nuggets -3

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