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An 0-2 Saturday.
We took the day off yesterday as nothing jumped out to me. Every line seemed pretty solid and the Bet MLB System didn’t see too much value.
We are getting close to the end of the month here and the sample sizes are growing. My target date for going to the full Bet MLB System from last year is the 15th, but I will need to compare the current system I am using (uses full season projections as well as current stats) versus that (only current stats) before I go totally live with it. The full system considers recent play, LvR stats, and home/road splits. While this current version is more overall.
Anyways, we’ve been doing pretty well with this system thus far despite the rough Saturday. Let’s get those wins back on tonight’s slate.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
Michael Wacha is making his return from the injured list for this road start against the Nationals. In his four starts this year, Wacha has posted a 4.64 ERA/5.90 FIP with some ugly walk numbers and HR/9 rate. The Nationals have one of the higher walk rates in the league and should be able to get him out early if he continues to struggle with his control.
The Nats will send Patrick Corbin who has an elite strikeout rate at 10.74/9. He has posted a 2.48 ERA/3.38 FIP on the season and I expect him to have a solid start at home here. The Cardinals offense is a dangerous one, but I like Corbin to keep them off the bases in this one.
Bet Nationals -141
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
I don’t love Zach Davies as a starter, but he has been getting results early with a 1.65 ERA/3.90 FIP on the season. The Rockies are a bad team on the road, as always, and they have just a 71 wRC+ versus right handed pitchers on the season. They are not a dangerous offense and even less so on the road.
I don’t want to overreact too much to this stat, but the Brewers are absolutely amazing at home. They have a huge .532 slugging percentage and a .877 OPS in their home games. Kyle Freeland is a solid pitcher with a 4.23 ERA/3.68 FIP, but if he pitches to those numbers I think the Brewers win this game.
Bet Brewers -114