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MLB tips for August 23rd, 2022.
1-4 record last night.
I am happy with where the System is at with the recent updates (despite last night’s results) so I decided to dig deeper into the record to see the best way to bet the rest of the season.
My two worst bets this season have been overs and -0.5 First 5 Inning bets. A 53-55 record on -0.5 bets this season, but the juice on those means that you need to be much, much better than that.
The very best bets in the System have been moneylines (66-49), F5 moneyline (41-30) and then F5 totals (28-18). Unders have been good overall with a 25-16 record, F5 and totals combined.
So going forward that is what we are going to do. -0.5s are out the window and overs too. The System seems to do best at picking sides and unders so that will be mostly what I focus on for the rest of the season. With these rules I wouldn’t have had any picks last night, but that’s better than what ended up happening.
Seven tips tonight on Patreon, four are below.
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Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
ATL – Max Fried 2.60 ERA/2.50 FIP
PIT – JT Brubaker 4.19 ERA/3.68 FIP
Fried has been amazing of late with a 2.42 ERA/2.11 FIP over his past five starts and the Pirates offense is one of the weakest out there.
Brubaker has been solid and the Braves are at their weakest against righties. He’s pitched well of late, but has been punished by a high BABIP and HR/FB rate. His ERA/FIP/xFIP right now is 4.78 ERA/3.46 FIP/2.92 xFIP so hopefully we get something closer to that last guy, but the middle one should do.
Braves/Pirates Under 4 Runs First 5 Innings (-117)
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
CIN – Nick Lodolo 4.12 ERA/4.13 FIP
PHI – Ranger Suarez 3.31 ERA/3.69 FIP
LAA – Tucker Davidson 6.75 ERA/5.41 FIP
TBR – Jeffrey Springs 2.52 ERA/3.23 FIP
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
CHW – Dylan Cease 2.09 ERA/2.88 FIP
BAL – Austin Voth 4.86 ERA/3.87 FIP
Voth has really started to put it together in his opener role and has started to go deeper and deeper. He’s gone at least five over his past four starts and has pitched excellently over that period with a 2.11 ERA/2.97 FIP. The White Sox are below average against righties and this is a very pitcher friendly park.
Cease has been getting results of late with a 1.86 ERA/3.56 FIP over his past five starts. A bit lucky, but the Orioles aren’t world beaters on offense either.
I think both of these pitchers go at least five and I trust the bullpens to keep it quiet as both are above average, especially at the back end.
White Sox/Orioles Under 7.5 Runs (-120)
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
TOR – Ross Stripling 2.93 ERA/2.88 FIP
BOS – Josh Winckowski 5.19 ERA/5.22 FIP
LAA – Tucker Davidson 6.75 ERA/5.41 FIP
TBR – Jeffrey Springs 2.52 ERA/3.23 FIP
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Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
LAA – Jose Suarez 4.12 ERA/4.23 FIP
TBR – Corey Kluber 4.33 ERA/3.46 FIP
Suarez has a 1.19 ERA/2.19 FIP over his past four starts. Good strikeouts and no homeruns allowed. The Rays offense is above average against lefties, but nothing really overwhelmind. They have a 94 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Kluber has had some really bad luck of late with a 6.28 ERA/3.53 FIP over his past five starts. A high BABIP and low left on base has killed him, but that should bounce back here. The Angels have just a 67 wRC+ over the past two weeks and are a below average team against righties.
Both of these bullpens have been excellent of late so I don’t expect many late inning fireworks.
Angels/Rays Under 7 Runs (+105)
San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
SFG – Carlos Rodon 2.89 ERA/2.35 FIP
DET – Drew Hutchison 4.23 ERA/4.15 FIP
LAA – Tucker Davidson 6.75 ERA/5.41 FIP
TBR – Jeffrey Springs 2.52 ERA/3.23 FIP
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Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
CLE – Aaron Civale 5.63 ERA/3.72 FIP
SDP – Mike Clevinger 3.63 ERA/4.13 FIP
Civale has been on one since returning from the disabled list. It’s only two starts and, yes, they were against the Tigers, but a 2.70 ERA/0.91 FIP is still impressive. I’m not using those stats for this tip though, only his season long numbers. The Padres made all those moves at the deadline, but are yet to see the results from it. The offense has looked better over the past two weeks, but it’s still not quite what you’d expect it to be. It could be another quiet night if Civale shows up and the bullpen does their job. The Guardians bullpen has a 50 FIP- over the past two weeks.
The Guardians offense is slightly better against righties, but they are pretty average all around. Clevinger has been a much better pitcher at home with a 2.96 ERA/3.48 FIP.
This is a pitcher’s park and both teams aren’t elite in the homerun hitting category so I think run scoring could be quiet here.
Guardians/Padres Under 4 Runs First 5 Innings (-100)
