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It was a good weekend for a team to make a move in the National League Wild Card race, but of course no one did. The Cubs are currently in the second Wild Card position and they spent the weekend losing three straight. This was prime time for someone to move up to them, but the rest of the contenders played poorly as well. The Mets lost three, the Phillies lost two of three (to the Marlins, no less), and the Brewers lost yesterday.
The Nationals were the big winner this week as they’ve now won five straight and have a four-game lead on the first Wild Card. The Cardinals have won four straight and now have a 2.5 game lead over the Cubs and 4.5 game lead over the Brewers.
We could know a lot more about the Milwaukee Brewers over the next week or two as they are beginning a twelve-game stretch where they play St. Louis, Chicago, Houston, and Chicago again. This is make or break time for that squad. That series with St. Louis kicks off tonight.
We only have baseball tonight so let’s pick some winners. Tips are below.
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MLB Betting Tips:
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: This tip comes by way of a combination of things. The Brewers have been red hot at the plate lately with Ryan Braun especially starting to hit like it’s 2011. They face Adam Wainwright who has been a far worse pitcher on the road this season with a 6.64 ERA/5.08 FIP. Walks and homeruns have been a problem for him and the Brewers are hot right now.
The Brewers send Gio Gonzalez who has a 3.64 ERA/4.17 FIP in twelve games this season. He’s not a sure thing by any means, but the Cardinals have been below average against left handed starters all season long and I can see Gio having a nice start here. The Brewers need this one and their playing at home, I think it’s a good bet at this price.
Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals: The Athletics are 7-3 over their past ten games and now sit just 0.5 games back of the Rays for the second Wild Card in the American League. The Royals, on the other hand, are 46-85 on the season and just waiting for this dang thing to be over.
Despite that, the odds are pretty good on this one. Homer Bailey gets the start for the Athletics and he has a 5.06 ERA/4.32 FIP. Not the best, but he is definitely due for some regression. The Royals offer a great match-up to do that as they have just a 40 wRC+ over the past two weeks. That’s not a misprint, they have a .190 batting average and a .286 slugging percentage over the last two weeks. That is so, so bad.
Brad Keller has been decent this year with a 3.95 ERA/4.32 FIP, but the Athletics have been hitting well lately and I just don’t see the Royals giving him any run support here. It’s kind of a big line, but in the grand scheme of things it should probably be much higher.