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MLB betting tips for August 3rd, 2023.
2-1 last night on Patreon. 5-2-1 for the month so far.
W Padres -1.5
L Mets First 5 Innings
W Dodgers -1.5
Awful start from Senga and a solid start from Ragans. The Padres and Dodgers both dominated from start to finish. F5, team totals, and -1.5 all would’ve come in on those games. Just domination.
Five bets today, three are available free below. Get the other two on Patreon.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
ARI – Brandon Pfaadt
SFG – Scott Alexander
The Giants are doing a bullpen game here and I trust their bullpen a lot more than I trust Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks bullpen.
Pfaadt has an 8.20 ERA/7.24 FIP in eight starts this season. He’s probably not this bad, but he’s on the road here and I’ll believe it when I see it. The bullpen behind him has really struggled of late with a 114 FIP- over the past two weeks and a 117 FIP- over the past month. Why did they trade Andrew Chafin, again? The Giants offense is much better against righties and I think they can do damage here.
The Diamondbacks offense is really struggling with an 86 wRC+ over the past two weeks and an 87 wRC+ over the past month.
Giants Moneyline (-125)
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Houston Astros at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
HOU – Cristian Javier
NYY – Clarke Schmidt
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
CIN – Luke Weaver
CHC – Jameson Taillon
I haven’t had the chance to share it, but my hot take for a while has been that the Cubs are going to win the NL Central. They are much better than the Reds and Brewers, but they had one awful month (10-18 in May) that they are still working to overcome. That looks to be happening as they are on their way to their third straight month of a winning record.
The Cubs have a +77 run differential while the Reds and Brewers are in the negative. Even a little luck should get this team back to the top. At 8-2 over the last ten, it is starting to happen. Bet this at +290 now.
I think the trend continues here. Weaver has been a hot mess this season with a 6.80 ERA/6.12 FIP. He’s somehow been worse of late with a 7.16 ERA/9.09 FIP over his last four starts. The Cubs lineup is scorching with a 149 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They are deep with solid hitting from 1-9.
Glasnow has been excellent of late with a 1.78 ERA/3.31 FIP over his last four starts. The Reds offense has been worse against righties this season and the Cubs bullpen is in good form.
Cubs Moneyline (-160)
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
SEA – Bryan Woo
LAA – Shohei Ohtani
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
OAK – JP Sears
LAD – Julio Urias
This one is close, but after the last couple of days I am going right back to the -1.5.
Sears is a flyball pitcher that doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts and I just don’t see how that goes well against this offense. The Dodgers do everything right with a huge home run rate and a 115 wRC+ against lefties. The bullpen behind him remains the worst in baseball.
Urias had a rough start, but is rounding into form with a 5.09 ERA/3.53 FIP over his last four starts. He should move closer to that FIP here as the Athletics are below average at every facet of the game.
Dodgers -1.5 (-140)
