August 3rd, 2023 MLB Betting Tips

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MLB betting tips for August 3rd, 2023.

2-1 last night on Patreon. 5-2-1 for the month so far.

W Padres -1.5
L Mets First 5 Innings
W Dodgers -1.5

Awful start from Senga and a solid start from Ragans. The Padres and Dodgers both dominated from start to finish. F5, team totals, and -1.5 all would’ve come in on those games. Just domination.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:

ARI – Brandon Pfaadt
SFG – Scott Alexander

The Giants are doing a bullpen game here and I trust their bullpen a lot more than I trust Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks bullpen.

Pfaadt has an 8.20 ERA/7.24 FIP in eight starts this season. He’s probably not this bad, but he’s on the road here and I’ll believe it when I see it. The bullpen behind him has really struggled of late with a 114 FIP- over the past two weeks and a 117 FIP- over the past month. Why did they trade Andrew Chafin, again? The Giants offense is much better against righties and I think they can do damage here.

The Diamondbacks offense is really struggling with an 86 wRC+ over the past two weeks and an 87 wRC+ over the past month.

Giants Moneyline (-125)
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Houston Astros at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

HOU – Cristian Javier
NYY – Clarke Schmidt

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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

CIN – Luke Weaver
CHC – Jameson Taillon

I haven’t had the chance to share it, but my hot take for a while has been that the Cubs are going to win the NL Central. They are much better than the Reds and Brewers, but they had one awful month (10-18 in May) that they are still working to overcome. That looks to be happening as they are on their way to their third straight month of a winning record.

The Cubs have a +77 run differential while the Reds and Brewers are in the negative. Even a little luck should get this team back to the top. At 8-2 over the last ten, it is starting to happen. Bet this at +290 now.

I think the trend continues here. Weaver has been a hot mess this season with a 6.80 ERA/6.12 FIP. He’s somehow been worse of late with a 7.16 ERA/9.09 FIP over his last four starts. The Cubs lineup is scorching with a 149 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They are deep with solid hitting from 1-9.

Glasnow has been excellent of late with a 1.78 ERA/3.31 FIP over his last four starts. The Reds offense has been worse against righties this season and the Cubs bullpen is in good form.

Cubs Moneyline (-160)

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

SEA – Bryan Woo
LAA – Shohei Ohtani

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

OAK – JP Sears
LAD – Julio Urias

This one is close, but after the last couple of days I am going right back to the -1.5.

Sears is a flyball pitcher that doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts and I just don’t see how that goes well against this offense. The Dodgers do everything right with a huge home run rate and a 115 wRC+ against lefties. The bullpen behind him remains the worst in baseball.

Urias had a rough start, but is rounding into form with a 5.09 ERA/3.53 FIP over his last four starts. He should move closer to that FIP here as the Athletics are below average at every facet of the game.

Dodgers -1.5 (-140)