August 5th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Four MLB System tips for August 5th, 2021.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Tyler Anderson 102 117 84 61 88 3 114 25
NYY   102 104 125 100 13 93 21
Nestor Cortes 51 22 129 91 87 2 84 8
SEA   104 111 103 92 19 103 12

The Mariners made a nice little pickup with Tyler Anderson, but he is not likely to look like a nice pickup today. The Yankees offense is excellent against left handed pitching and they’ve only gotten better with their recent trades. This team really is the Bronx Bombers and a pitcher with a 1.41 HR/9 rate is right up their alley.

Not much sample on Cortes, but the Mariners have just a 90 wRC+ against lefties. He doesn’t need to be great, he only needs to be average.

Pick: Bet Yankees -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/05 12:59:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Triston McKenzie 134 156 121 188 92 5 109 22
TOR   129 91 93 113 2 121 3
Ross Stripling 125 157 100 84 106 23 105 19
CLE   105 101 88 89 23 93 21

This pick is all about the offensive disparity between these two teams. The Blue Jays are amazing. The Indians stink.

Neither pitcher gives me a lot of confidence, but putting McKenzie and his 6.11 ERA/5.72 FIP against this Blue Jays lineup feels like a gift at this price. Take the gift.

Pick: Bet Blue Jays -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/05 12:59:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Griffin Jax 145 185 80 110 106 23 106 20
HOU   111 84 108 119 1 130 2
Framber Valdez 101 69 91 125 104 22 85 10
MIN   120 96 103 105 6 115 5

The Astros have the better offense, better (and improved) bullpen, and better starter. This is another lay-up and the System’s favorite pick of the day.

The Astros have a 119 wRC+ against right handed pitching on the season. Griffin Jax has a 6.41 ERA/6.17 FIP on the season. This one will be over before you know it.

Pick: Bet Astros -1.5

USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/05 12:59:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Touki Toussaint 100 132 120 62 99 12 79 6
STL   90 99 85 88 25 104 10
Wade LeBlanc 120 109 61 77 103 18 80 7
ATL   117 109 101 99 15 105 9

I was expecting Toussaint to start to look human after two great starts. Now, I’m looking for him to be good again. The Cardinals offense can do that for him as they have just an 88 wRC+ against righties on the season.

Wade LeBlanc should help them to get the job done. The Braves have just a 96 wRC+ against lefties on the season, but some of their recent additions should help with that. LeBlanc has a 4.17 ERA/4.99 FIP on the season with few strikeouts and a 1.32 HR/9 rate. He’s hittable. The Braves can hit.

Pick: Bet Braves Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -116 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/05 12:59:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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