August 6th, 2020 MLB Betting Tips

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A tough 1-2 last night.

The system thought that the Astros would score a ton of runs yesterday and they did exactly that. Unfortunately, so did the Diamondbacks who went crazy on Lance McCullers Jr. After jumping out to an early 4-0 lead things looked good for the Astros and then a 9-run fourth inning by the Diamondbacks put this one away. These things happen.

The system also liked the White Sox to jump on the Brewers bullpen only they didn’t really get the chance to do so. Adrian Houser, who only had three career starts over 5 innings, pitched seven strong before giving way to David Phelps and Josh Hader to shut it down. The Brewers won 1-0 so that one hurt.

We did manage to get the win with the Twins -1.5, but they made us sweat for it. The score was 1-0 heading into the ninth, but then the Twins offense erupted for four runs in the top of the 9th to get us the cover.

A bumpy first day to the expanded system, but there isn’t a loss here that makes me think the system was spitting about bad results. Houser lasted way longer than his average start and Lance McCullers gave up about four more runs than could possibly be projected. Luck happens both ways and better days are ahead.

Like today.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

Reds: Luis Castillo 3.40 ERA/3.70 FIP (2019)
Indians: Carlos Carrasco 5.29 ERA/4.41 FIP (2019)

Carrasco has huge strikeout stuff, but the homeruns have been a problem. He had a HR/9 rate over two last season and it’s over two in his first two starts of the year. This Reds offfense is very dangerous against right handed pitchers and is filled with guys who can hit one out.

I think that Castillo is the far superior pitcher and he’s one of those guys that just lacks consistency. His first start of the year against the Tigers he struck out 11 and only allowed one run. Then he faced the Tigers again and allowed five runs. That game was pretty unlucky (his FIP for that game was 1.50), but when he is really locked in there are few that are better than him.

I think it’ll be easy to lock in today as I am no fan of this Indians offense. The better starter and the better offense plays here.

Bet Reds +122

Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

Astros: Brandon Bielak 4.41 ERA/4.60 FIP (2019-minors)
Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen 2.81 ERA/3.61 FIP (2019)

Against another team Gallen would be a guy that might move the needle for the Diamondbacks, but not against the Astros. He had a rough start his first time out with five walks against the Padres, but adjusted in his second start against the Dodgers. Now he faces the Astros who are a very patient team who hit righties well. I think Gallen could have a solid start here, but he’s not going very deep and the Diamondbacks bullpen is not pretty.

I am going to take a flier here on the rookie starters. He’s only pitched five innings out of the bullpen this year, but he’s had huge strikeout stuff and he should be decent as long as he keeps his walks down. I am not expecting much beyond four innings here, but as long as he doesn’t pull a McCullers it should be enough for the Astros to get the win.

Bet Astros -108

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

Brewers: Josh Lindblom 4.12 ERA/4.24 FIP (Career)
White Sox: Gio Gonzalez 4.21 ERA/4.16 FIP (2019)

This game should be the polar opposite of last night as I am expecting a lot more runs scored here. Lindblom struggled with his control in his first start and only managed to pitch 3.2 innings. If that happens again, look out. This White Sox offense can feast on the weaker end of this Brewers bullpen and that’s what we’re betting on here.

Gio Gonzalez is nothing special, but honestly neither is the Brewers offense right now. I think he can have his best start of the season here as long as he keeps his walks down.

Bet White Sox -124

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