Follow @SBTSportBetting [Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
Four MLB System tips for August 6th, 2021.
A 2-2 record last night.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Brubaker | 114 | 154 | 101 | 64 | 100 | 15 | 119 | 28 |
| CIN | 108 | 103 | 98 | 102 | 10 | 140 | 1 | |
| Wade Miley | 83 | 59 | 79 | 84 | 112 | 28 | 112 | 23 |
| PIT | 65 | 97 | 92 | 84 | 28 | 70 | 29 |
Wade Miley is a reliable pitcher with a 2.92 ERA/3.62 FIP on the season. He draws a great match-up here against the Pirates who are a bottom three offense.
The Reds offense can hit JT Brubaker. He has a 1.85 HR/9 rate and the Reds can definitely him them. For the season Brubaker has a 4.49 ERA/4.78 FIP.
Pick: Bet Reds -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/06 11:39:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Webb | 83 | 62 | 102 | 84 | 97 | 10 | 86 | 12 |
| MIL | 100 | 112 | 107 | 91 | 21 | 109 | 8 | |
| Corbin Burnes | 34 | 28 | 153 | 53 | 101 | 17 | 84 | 8 |
| SFG | 126 | 110 | 107 | 107 | 5 | 112 | 6 |
Corbin Burnes is coming off his worst start of the season and I’m expecting a bounce back here. He has a huge strikeout rate and a good groundball rate with a 2.46 ERA/1.49 FIP on the season. The Giants offense is dangerous, but I think he can look good through the first two times through the order.
No shade on Logan Webb, but he should get hit at least a little bit as the Brewers are hitting well lately. This may be a 1-0 situation, but that’s a win.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/06 11:39:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Foltynewicz | 150 | 197 | 69 | 68 | 98 | 11 | 88 | 13 |
| OAK | 101 | 99 | 104 | 101 | 12 | 98 | 17 | |
| Chris Bassitt | 86 | 77 | 106 | 69 | 99 | 12 | 70 | 3 |
| TEX | 92 | 103 | 91 | 84 | 28 | 66 | 30 |
Foltynewicz is the worst pitcher on the board with a 6.00 ERA/6.31 FIP. Low strikeouts, high homeruns. He’s the perfect pitcher to target.
Chris Bassit has been solid with a 3.28 ERA/3.52 FIP. He has a nice match-up against the Rangers who have just a 66 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Athletics -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/06 11:39:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Smith | 119 | 131 | 111 | 137 | 118 | 30 | 117 | 27 |
| SDP | 100 | 98 | 107 | 102 | 10 | 99 | 16 | |
| Ryan Weathers | 122 | 124 | 75 | 97 | 92 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| ARI | 74 | 105 | 97 | 85 | 27 | 78 | 26 |
The system likes the Padres today, but not at this price. They have a solid offense and a great match-up here.
Caleb Smith has a 5.04 ERA/4.98 FIP on the season with a 1.58 HR/9 rate. The bullpen behind him is really struggling of late with a 117 FIP- over the past two weeks.
The Padres offense is just above average on the season, but I think they are better than the numbers are showing.
Pick: Bet Padres Over 4.5 Runs
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/06 11:39:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
