August 6th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Four MLB System tips for August 6th, 2021.

A 2-2 record last night.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
JT Brubaker 114 154 101 64 100 15 119 28
CIN   108 103 98 102 10 140 1
Wade Miley 83 59 79 84 112 28 112 23
PIT   65 97 92 84 28 70 29

Wade Miley is a reliable pitcher with a 2.92 ERA/3.62 FIP on the season. He draws a great match-up here against the Pirates who are a bottom three offense.

The Reds offense can hit JT Brubaker. He has a 1.85 HR/9 rate and the Reds can definitely him them. For the season Brubaker has a 4.49 ERA/4.78 FIP.

Pick: Bet Reds -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/06 11:39:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)

San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Logan Webb 83 62 102 84 97 10 86 12
MIL   100 112 107 91 21 109 8
Corbin Burnes 34 28 153 53 101 17 84 8
SFG   126 110 107 107 5 112 6

Corbin Burnes is coming off his worst start of the season and I’m expecting a bounce back here. He has a huge strikeout rate and a good groundball rate with a 2.46 ERA/1.49 FIP on the season. The Giants offense is dangerous, but I think he can look good through the first two times through the order.

No shade on Logan Webb, but he should get hit at least a little bit as the Brewers are hitting well lately. This may be a 1-0 situation, but that’s a win.

Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/06 11:39:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Mike Foltynewicz 150 197 69 68 98 11 88 13
OAK   101 99 104 101 12 98 17
Chris Bassitt 86 77 106 69 99 12 70 3
TEX   92 103 91 84 28 66 30

Foltynewicz is the worst pitcher on the board with a 6.00 ERA/6.31 FIP. Low strikeouts, high homeruns. He’s the perfect pitcher to target.

Chris Bassit has been solid with a 3.28 ERA/3.52 FIP. He has a nice match-up against the Rangers who have just a 66 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Pick: Bet Athletics -1.5

USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/06 11:39:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Caleb Smith 119 131 111 137 118 30 117 27
SDP   100 98 107 102 10 99 16
Ryan Weathers 122 124 75 97 92 5 66 1
ARI   74 105 97 85 27 78 26

The system likes the Padres today, but not at this price. They have a solid offense and a great match-up here.

Caleb Smith has a 5.04 ERA/4.98 FIP on the season with a 1.58 HR/9 rate. The bullpen behind him is really struggling of late with a 117 FIP- over the past two weeks.

The Padres offense is just above average on the season, but I think they are better than the numbers are showing.

Pick: Bet Padres Over 4.5 Runs

USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/06 11:39:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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