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BDO 2013 World Championship Day Eight Premium Picks.
A decent night of darts last night, and, as expected, Jan Dekker and Richie George went all the way to a deciding set. We got the highest checkout bet over and done with, and then sat back and watched the action unfold. I think George was a deserving winner, and it’ll be good to see a new face in the semi-finals, and also the Grand Slam of Darts. In the night’s other match, we got unlucky with Paul Jennings missing too many doubles at crucial moments, which meant we only got the 7 sets, not the 8 or more we needed. The short match also meant we only got 9 maximums, 3 short, which I think we could have got if we had another set of two.
Today we have the semi-finals, and it’s deja vu all over again as Wesley Harms takes on Tony O’Shea, with the Dutchman looking to get revenge on his defeat at this stage last year. And then it’s the now odds-on favourite Scott Waites taking on the surprise package, Richie George. It doesn’t have the hallmarks of a classic, but then George upped his game when he needed to, and Waites looked more vulnerable than he has done so far against Paul Jennings.
The Premium Picks went 1-2 last night, and we’re on a profit of 5.02 units after six days of the 2013 BDO World Championship, as we eked out the tiniest of profits.
Tony O’Shea (4) Vs Wesley Harms (8).
Tony O’Shea was a safe bet to win his quarter, and he did it in comfortable fashion, knocking out John Walton, Steve Douglas and Robbie Green on his way to the semi-finals. He’s been playing good darts, and his performance against Green was outstanding, with an average of 94.77, easily his best of the tournament. He also hit 8 180s, which takes his tournament count to 14. His tournament average is 91.5, which he’ll be more than happy with. While his highest checkout is 161 for the tournament, he only managed a 100 against Robbie Green, which is unusual for The Silverback.
Wesley Harms is playing goo darts, there’s no denying it. In my opinion he’s playing better than last year, and he’ll have learned a lot from his 2012 experience at the Lakeside. His win over Darryl Fitton was impressive from a stats view, as he averaged 94.83 and managed to hit 6 180s, which was a vast improvement on his first two matches. He really upped his game against Fitton, which is what the best needs to do. His tournament average is 89.69, but that’s down to an 85.11 average against Rune David in his first match. There’s no part of his game that Harms will be worried about, as he’s putting in the big finishes, as his 161 finish against Fitton showed.
This is such a tough one to call. While O’Shea has the win last year to boost his confidence, Harms looks a better player than last year, while O’Shea is just playing at his consistent level. The averages have them roughly the same, and Harms actually managed a better average, marginally, than O’Shea in the quarter-finals. I can’t split them, and the bookies have O’Shea marginal favourite. What I think we’re going to get is a very close battle if last year is anything to go by. That match went 6-5 and I can see that happening again, or 6-4 t the very least. The line for Total Sets is 9.5, and I think it’s big value.
Over 9.5 sets in O’Shea Vs Harms match: Evens @
Recommend: 2 units
Scott Waites (3) Vs Richie George (15).
Scott Waites has been full of confidence this year. He’s playing great darts, and his 5-2 win over Paul Jennings last night showed he’s up for this more than ever. He averaged 92.16 and, apart from a few slips during the 5th and 6th sets, he looked likely to score 100+ on each visit. His tournament average of 90.55 shows just how consistent he’s been, as his first two performances were skirting around the 90 average. As usual with Waites, he’s not been ultra-prolific on the 180s, but he doesn’t need to when he’s consistently scoring 100s and 140s, as his opponents never get too far ahead. The one weakness this week? His doubling. But he’s got away with it, especially with Jennings.
Richie George has nothing to lose here. He’ll go onto that stage with all guns blazing, as he did against Dekker. His performance against Dekker was his best of the tournament, and he’s shown that he’s got lots of bottle. He’s averaging around 83 in all his matches, as he can power score, but then he’s struggling with the doubles. But he’s shown his quality with some nice checkouts, and he’s impressed me with his attitude his week.
Waites must be a good thing here. He beat Paul Jennings 5-2 and Jennings averaged just over 85, which is better than George has managed all week. Waites just needs to play his game and he’ll be in the final. The handicap line is -3.5 and I can’t see George getting more than 2 sets, as that’s all Jennings managed and Jennings was playing better darts than the youngster.
Scott Waites -3.5 sets to beat Richie George 5/6 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2.5 units
And that’s all for the semi-finals of the 2013 BDO World Championship. Only two bets, but then I think they’re both great value. Enjoy the semi-finals and I’ll be back for the BDO 2013 World Championship Final.