BDO 2013 World Championship Day Six Premium Picks

Scott
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Posted: January 11, 2013
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BDO 2013 World Championship Day Six Premium Picks.

Not the greatest start for us last night, but things picked up as the night went on. It was an unfortunate defeat for Garry Thompson, and I still think he was good value, and Dekker really is a lucky boy to be into the quarter-finals. Still, it didn’t get better thanks to Paul Jennings’ 4-0 destruction of Jason Cullen, which meant we only saw 4 maximums. I was hoping for at least 6 sets and a bit better from Cullen. But alas, it wasn’t to be. But then things picked up, with Scott Waites getting us over the line comfortably on the highest checkout market. And then Richie George did us a good turn yet again, even if he did put us through the wringer by missing so many doubles. But we got a nice win, none the less.

Tonight we’veonly got two matches, but they promise to be crackers. We’ve got last year’s semi-finalist Wesley Harms taking on the BDO veteran Darryl Fitton in what could be a free-scoring extravaganza. And then it gets even better with an all-England clash between Tony O’Shea and Robbie Green. These two are darting heavyweights in every sense of the word, and they’ll put on another power-scoring show.

The Premium Picks went 2-2 last night, and we’re on a profit of 7.27 units after five days of the 2013 BDO World Championship, as we eked out the tiniest of profits.

Darryl Fitton (16) Vs Wesley Harms (8).

A bit of an upset with Darryl Fitton knocking out Stephen Bunting in the Second Round. But Fitton played great darts, averaged 93.69, taking his tournament average to 91.64, which is the highest of any player left in. His 6 maximums against Bunting took his tournament total to 11. So he’s averaging 1 maximum every 4.36 legs. His highest checkout of the tournament is 116, which came against Bunting.

Wesley Harms finally showed some fight and some class in his 4-3 win over Alan Norris in the Second Round. While his First Round win over Rune David wasn’t impressive, he played well enough, but it was against Norris that his class shone through. He averaged 87.27, taking his tournament average to 86.49. Harms only hit 2 maximums over 27 legs of darts, putting him on 5 for the tournament. So he’s hitting one maximum every 9 legs. His highest checkout of the tournament came against Norris, which was 150, and he also fired in a 147 in the same match.

This is a match of contrasts. Harms is a consistent player, while Fitton is a player of spurts. Fitton will hit 2 maximums for every one of harms, but Harms looks much more dangerous on the finishes. I think this could be close, and like the bookies I can’t split them. However, the bet I like is Fitton on the handicap 180s. He’s giving Harms a -2.5 180 head start, but with him scoring two for every one of Harms, it looks like a value line. But I also like the look of Harms to score the highest checkout. He put in two big finishes against Norris, both of which eclipsed Fittin’s best. Add in Fitton’s power scoring will leave him on smaller outs and I think Harms looks great value here, too.

Darryl Fitton -2.5 180s to score more than Wesley Harms: 5/6 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 2 units

Wesley Harms to score the highest checkout versus Darryl Fitton: 5/6 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 1.5 units.

Robbie Green (5) Vs Tony O’Shea (4).

Robbie Green comfortably came through his Second Round match against Scott Mitchell. Mitchell blamed his medial condition for the poor showing, but Green played well, averaged 83.37, which was more than enough. He fired in 4 maximums and took out a nice 120 finish. His tournament average is 86.75, and his total 180s for the tournament is 7. He’s been playing very solid darts and knocked out the defending champion, Christian Kist, so he’ll be full of confidence.

Tony O’Shea, the fan favourite, and the man who nearly always impresses on the oche. He easily got past Steve Douglas after a slow start, averaging 89.43 to put his tournament average at 88.18. He did only hit 1 maximum, and his tournament count stands at 6, which is a bit disappointing for The Silverback. However, in the first leg against Douglas, he did hit a 161 and then managed a 120 later in the match.

In all honesty, I really like O’Shea here. Mitchell was shocking against Green, and he’s not going to have it as easy with O’Shea competing against him. O’Shea has been there and done it all before, so I don’t think he’ll be too worried by Green. Add in the fact that as O’Shea’s second round match went on, he became far more comfortable, and I think you’re looking at a semi-finalist here. The outright odds aren’t great, but I think O’Shea on the handicap represents good value, as he only has to break Green once to get over the line.

Tony O’Shea -1.5 sets to beat Robbie Green 5/6 @ Stan James.

Recommend: 1.5 units

And that’s all for the first quarter-finals of the 2013 BDO World Championship. The quarter-finals conclude tomorrow, and again I’m quietly confident of a good night for us.



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