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Well last week, and that course, was certainly an interesting one.
I will go back and analyze it again at a later date but on Sunday, quite a few of the top guys on the leaderboard weren’t showing up in the top 20 for me in the analysis I ran. So unfortunately, assessments of the course were incorrect. One reason why I often skip new courses.
Thankfully it wasn’t all bad – we had Matthew Fitzpatrick to bail us out for the most part. His E/W cash got a $281.50 return, meaning it was a loss of $81.
Considering my assessments appeared to be incorrect, I’ll take less than a unit loss. Frustrating one though because the sportsbooks agreed with my data which gave me that extra confidence to bet a full unit on Rahm and Scottie. Man – not sure what the heck happened with Scottie there. Very curious to see how he performs this week.
Charles Schwab this week. I’m writing a tad late – been such a mental last couple of weeks with work drama. Let’s get right into it. I’m hoping things will die down over the next little while so I can focus more on non-PGA tournaments which I really enjoy doing.
Charles Schwab Betting Tips
E/W (Each-Way) bets mean you split that amount. So if it is a $250 E/W bet, that means $125 on them to win, $125 on them to place (Usually in the Top 5)
I was borderline on Jordan Spieth to win here honestly with his course form, and some solid performances. But my system has him finishing around 9th. Thing is he was 16/1 earlier in the week and I MIGHT have did an E/W bet on him there. But he’s dropped to 12/1 at most sportsbooks and I just don’t think the value is there anymore. Plus would have to back him to win.
You may wish to back him to Top 5 or Top 10. Top 10 is 8/11 and I am iffy on that just too short for my liking.
At 12/1 my system likes JT here and feels 12/1 is decent value but man – his course performances plus the fact that he’s coming off last weeks win just puts me off.
Tommy Fleetwood To Win & E/W. $62.50 at 40/1.
No course history for Tommy boy but man I was cheering him on in the PGA Championship. Solid final round and he should bring that momentum in here I hope. Hopefully he gets the confidence to get going here.
I believe his game suits this course, and that he can contend.
Let’s wrap it up with two 1/4u bets to make it a full 2u of betting.
$31.25 on Max Homa To Win & E/W at 33/1..
In theory his game should really suit this course. And he is playing well. Problem is he has only made the cut once out of three attempts and finished 27th. He’s never really dominated any rounds either – also very, very average. This is one where I make the bet, while making a note “never bet Homa here again” if he doesn’t do the business.
$31.25 on Russell Knox To Win & E/W at 125/1
Hey my system thinks he can do it and who am I to argue? I looked at the odds for Top 20 and Top 30 as I think that’d be more reasonable, but I just didn’t like the price for them. Real risk/reward ratio factored in here.