February 11th, 2023 NBA Betting Tips

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Four NBA tips, two more on Patreon.

For those not on Patreon, I have built a new Player Prop System. I am looking at the player’s season, last five games, and last ten game stats and then comparing them against team defenses and game totals.

People who have been following me for a long time now that I prefer not to bet unders. It’s just too easy for things to go wrong and these things are usually close enough as it is. Plus, who wants to root for people to miss shots? Boring.

That said, I have had a few lately where what I have versus what the books are listing are way off so I think it’s worth monitoring. I’m going to put them here at the top before I get into my official picks.

James Harden Under 36.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists – He’s averaging 17.9 points, 10.2 assists, and 6.0 rebounds over his last ten games. He’s a threat to hit if he goes over 20 points, but this game is unlikely to be competitive and I can see him with a low minutes load.

Bradley Beal Under 22.5 Points – Averaging 18.9 over his last ten games. Only two games saw him go over this total. He’s not getting to the line at all, averaging three free throw attempts per game.

Donovan Mitchell Under 24.5 Points – He’s coming off a 30-point game so he may be out of it, but he had been in quite the slump previous to that with an average of just 17.8 points in his last ten. Including that 30-point game, there was only one other game that went over this total.

Andrew Wiggins Under 25.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists – He scored 18 points in each of his last two, but prior to that had only gone over 17 once in his previous eight games. He is only averaging 4.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists in his last ten.

Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards Betting Tips:

This number feels like it is in need of an adjustment. Turner has posted a 20/10 in three of his past five games and has double-digit rebounds in four of his past five. Overall, he’s averaging 19.2 points and 9.2 rebounds in his past ten games. He’s only missed going over this number in two of his past ten games and both saw him play less than thirty minutes.

With the roster construction of the Wizards, I think he’ll get the minutes tonight. He had a 27/10 game against the Wizards earlier this season.

I expect him to do battle with Porzingis tonight who is another great over bet. He has averaged 28.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in his last five games with three games scoring over 30. He’s really shot well from three of late, hitting 48.5% over his last ten games.

Myles Turner Over 27.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
Kristaps Porzingis Over 37.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists

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Utah Jazz at New York Knicks Betting Tips:

Patreon Exclusive Pick – Free

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Tips:

This is another game where I am seeing a center battle unfold.

Jarrett Allen has averaged 19.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists over his last five games with three straight games over 20 points and 11+ rebounds in four of the past five.

Nikola Vucevic has averaged 21.0 points, 13.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists in his last five games. He has back-to-back 17-rebound games and has scored 20+ in three of his past four.

Jarrett Allen Over 27.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
Nikola Vucevic Over 32.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists

Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings Betting Tips:

Patreon Exclusive Pick – Free

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