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A 1-1 record last night.
We had the Thunder last night against the Kings and they simply waited too long to put this team away. They were down 11 at the half and began chipping away in the second half, but it wasn’t until the fourth that they ended up taking full control. They got the win, but it fell just short of the spread. The Kings continued their great against the spread record. The worst part here is that I switched this to a 2 unit play at literally the last minute.
Our other tip was the under on the Pacers/Blazers game. I try not to go for the under too much around here because, honestly, unders aren’t that fun to bet, but this one was too good to pass up. The Blazers without Lillard and the Pacers with their 80s style offense. The final total was 206 in the Pacers win, we bet under 218 so this was way under.
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips:
This is the third game in four nights and the second half of a back-to-back involving travel for the OKC Thunder. We don’t see a lot of those in the NBA these days as they’ve worked hard to remove them, but this is the definition of schedule hell for Oklahoma City.
Despite that, there are a lot of numbers telling me to go with OKC here though. They are 7-0 against the spread as a road underdog when the total is +6.5 or higher, they are 8-0 against the spread when playing on a back-to-back, and they are 16-4 against the spread as a road underdog. Those are some impressive numbers, but they aren’t against the Bucks and I am just having trouble finding a reason to back them outside of that. For example, their road underdog record straight up is 10-10.
So while this team has played well on the road, they aren’t Milwaukee. Only Milwaukee is Milwaukee and Milwaukee is the best team in the NBA right now. I’m not sure how much local news might swing this one, but this could be an emotionally charged game as well with what happened at MillerCoors.
Regardless, I think the Bucks are just the better team and a -10.5 spread with them is like a -4 spread with every other team. They are just too good on defense and they routinely blow teams out. That’s what they are going to do here.
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies Betting Tips:
This is also the third game in four nights and second half of a back-to-back for the Sacramento Kings. I feel far less good about their ability to play a road back-to-back like this and I am a big fan of everything Memphis is doing right now.
I think I’d be on Memphis without the schedule hell portion, but with it it’s just icing on the cake. The Grizzlies are 10-2 on the season as a home favorite and I see no reason why they won’t protect their house in a game with some playoff implications.