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Grand Slam of Darts Day Three Premium Picks
The longest day of the Grand Slam of Darts, but it was also a great day for us on the Premium Picks. We went 9-1 with a profit of +16.25 units, which leaves us with a total of +11.8 units after two days of darts action. We were on the right side of what the commentary team were calling “upsets”, but Harms, Kist and O’Shea are no mugs and were ridiculously overprices, while we all knew Ted Hankey goes well in Wolverhampton. It’s just a shame Paul Nicholson couldn’t scrape together another leg so we could have had the perfect day. That being said, we won’t complain.
Tonight, just the eight matches, and the first half doesn’t exactly fill me with anticipation, with Mark Walsh taking on Wayne Jones, then Terry Jenkins versus Martin Phillips, followed by Paul Nicholson and Barrie Bates. Then we get Adrian Lewis versus John Part, and normally a match featuring two World Champions would get me excited, but not this one. Then we get to the winners of the first round of matches and Andy Hamilton takes on Brendan Dolan. But then things get interesting, with Gary Anderson facing Tony O’Shea, then it’s time for the match I’ve been waiting for since the draw was made – Christian Kist Vs Raymond van Barneveld. Then we finish off with Wesley Harms facing Wes Newton, and it should cap off a roller-coaster evening.
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Mark Walsh vs Wayne Jones.
This, looking at the stats, is going to be a close one. Both men were not too impressive in their first matches, with Mark Walsh losing 5-0 to Raymond van Barneveld, and Wayne Jones losing 5-1 to Christian Kist. Jones Avareged 83.51, while Walsh managed 85 exactly. Walsh only got 2 darts at doubles, while Jones got 4. So neither man would be instilling their fans with confidence.
What’s interesting here is the head-to-head. They’ve played each other 20 times, and Walsh leads 11-9. He won their last meeting just a couple of weeks ago, winning their Champions League Darts group match 6-4. So it’s definitely going to be a close one, and it’s going to take something special from either man to be the first across the line.
I think the important thing here is the home advantage for Jones. He’ll want to avoid embarrassment in front of his home crowd, so I expect him to pull out all the stops to get the win here. Plus, he’s just a shade of odds-against, and I’d actually price this up 10/11 that pair, so any fraction in our favour, and we have to had a nibble.
Wayne Jones to beat Mark Walsh: 11/10 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 1 unit.
Terry Jenkins Vs Martin Phillips.
I was probably a bit harsh on both men at the start of the write-up, as this has the potential to be an interesting game, more for the purists. Both men lost their first match, so need a win here to keep in contention to qualify from their group.
I think this is going to be a tight affair, and although Jenkins averaged 97.13, he still went down 5-2. It was the same scoreline for Martin Phillips, and he averaged 87.66. But what we should remember is that Jenkins had only 3 missed attempts at a double, while Phillips had 7, so the averages reflect this. The fact is, if Jenkins was playing someone who was averaging less than 100, he would have had a few more chances at a double, and could have bumped his average either way. So it’s a strange one.
Like tonight’s first match, I have this as a close one, and Phillips’ pace might just unnerve Jenkins. I think the Welshman’s price is a bit too big, so again we’ll take the outsider of the pair here.
Martin Phillips to beat Terry Jenkins: 6/4 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 1 unit.
Paul Nicholson Vs Barrie Bates.
I don’t want to offend any Barrie Bates fans out there, but I think this will be his swansong from the GSOD, and it won’t be pretty. Bates averaged 78.19 in his first match against Andy Hamilton, which he lost 5-2. It wasn’t a pretty match, but that was to be expected. Then we have Paul Nicholson, who put in an average of 85.95 in his 5-2 defeat at the hands of Brendan Dolan. Basically, it’s a couple of points less than the average Andy Hamilton needed beat Bates, so I can see a comfortable win for Nicholson if both men play at the same level. That being said, I expect Nicholson to put in a better performance than he did yesterday, so Bates could really be in trouble.
However, I can’t find an angle here that isn’t betting on Paul Nicholson at ridiculously short odds. 1/5? No thanks, even if I do think it should be a cakewalk for The Asset. We’ll sit this one out.
Recommend: No bet.
Adrian Lewis Vs John Part.
A rematch of last year’s second round match between two PDC World Champions. Both men went down 5-4 in their first matches, with Adrian Lewis losing out to Tony O’Shea, having led for most of the match, while John Part went down 5-4 to Gary Anderson, having missed two darts to win the match. Lewis’ average was 88.41, while Part put in a slightly lower average of 85.50. So, not much between them, even on the doubling, with Lewis hitting 50%, and Part hitting 40%. So this could be a tight one.
There are a couple of interesting things about this match. The first is the head-to-head. It’s actually 5-5, which is surprising considering the fortunes of both men over the past couple of years. Then there’s last year’s match, which finished 10-8 to Lewis, and Part almost produced the miracle comeback. Finally, there is their last meeting, which was in the World Cup back in February, which Part actually won 4-3. So all these factors would have you believe it’s going to be quite close. And I agree. It’s short course darts, which favours the steady players, and that’s John Part. Lewis, while flashy, is just as likely to win 5-0 as he is to lose 5-0, depending on whether he’s in the right gear to start. Plus, the pressure is going to be on Lewis, as World Champion, to win this, and he’s not a player who likes to have the weight of expectation on his shoulders. Part is a big price for this kind of match, and he did well to get out of a tough group last year, so we’ll side with the Canadian at a big price.
John Part to beat Adrian Lewis: 7/4 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 1 unit.
Andy Hamilton Vs Brendan Dolan.
I know both men won their matches, but it’s hard to get excited about this match. Brendan Dolan plugs away, grinds out wins, while Andy Hamilton is playing well without being outstanding this year.
Hamilton was a very comfortable winner against Barrie Bates. He was never really pushed, and put in an average of 87.92. He didn’t score one 180, and only hit 31% of doubles. Yet he won 5-2. Brendan Dolan’s average in his 5-2 win was 88.2, but then his doubling came in at 28%. So it’s close on paper. The thing is, Hamilton didn’t have to come out of second gear, while Dolan fought for every leg against Paul Nicholson. And then we have the head-to-head. They’ve only played once in the last two years, and Hamilton was a 10-7 winner at this year’s World Matchplay. So it’s bound to be close and I think we’ll get at least 8 legs here, so the line of 7.5 is nice, and that’s our play here.
Total legs in Andy Hamilton Vs Brendan Dolan match over 7.5: 4/5 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
Gary Vs Tony O’Shea.
And now it’s time for the real action. Two men who were once BDO stalwarts face off on the PDC stage, after both winning their first matches at the 2012 Grand Slam of Darts.
Both men fought hard for their first round wins, both winning 5-4. O’Shea averaged a shade over 90, while Anderson finished on 95.22. So it’s clear to see that Anderson’s scoring is getting back to his best. The 3 maximums also helped. What this is going to come down to is the doubling, and that’s where Anderson is weak. He was 10 points better than John Part on the averages, yet he scraped through in a deciding leg, having been broken 3 times by Part, and also missing 11 darts at doubles. O’Shea, on the other hand, was solid on his doubles, hitting 50%, and there was the small matter of 5 maximums, too.
So, both men are known for their power scoring, only one is known for his strong doubling, and that man is The Silverback. In fact, O’Shea won their last meeting, which was on the Lakeside stage, and he won quite comfortably, taking it 5-3 in sets. I can’t see why O’Shea is such a big price here, given the horrendous year Anderson has had. Yes, Anderson can score heavily, but O’Shea can match him. It’s going to come down to the doubles, and I’d rather have a man who hit 50% in his first match than a man who hit 31%. O’Shea is a huge price, and we’re definitely going in, just as we did yesterday.
Tony O’Shea to beat Gary Anderson: 7/4 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
Raymond van Barneveld Vs Christian Kist.
This is a seriously exciting match for me. It’s the Dutch old school against the new and exciting Dutch new school. Both men are BDO World Champion, both men are exciting to watch and both men an score heavily.
Looking at their first round matches, Kist scored an impressive 97.21, and hit 5 out of 8 doubles in his Grand Slam of Darts debut. Raymond van Barneveld put in an equally impressive 96.35, and hit 5 out of 7 doubles. So it’s obviously going to be a close one. For me, the big thing is going to be the confidence. Kist is playing full of confidence, and he’s going to be playing with nothing to lose, while Van Barneveld will be feeling the pressure. Kist would be my favourite here, so the price on the youngster is encouraging.
Christian Kist to beat Raymond van Barneveld: 5/4 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
Wes Newton Vs Wesley Harms.
The final match of the night is an exciting one. We’ve got two men who are seen as the future of darts, and two men who impressed in their first match at this year’s Grand Slam of Darts. Wes Newton put in a fine average of 93.39 in his 5-2 win over Martin Phillips, while Harms put in an average of 101.79 to announce his presence.
For me, Harms’ performance was second only to Michael van Gerwen’s in his first match. The young Dutchman showed his form in the BDO has continued into the GSOD, and he doesn’t seem to hold any fear. Newton did put in a solid performance, but Phillips didn’t punish him when he had the chance, and Newton’s result looked a bit more comfortable than it actually was. The bookies see Newton as the clear favourite, but I think, again, this should be around 10/11 the pair, as we’ve got two men playing well, they’re in the upper echelons in their respective organisations and Newton is only shorter because of the exposure the PDC gets. Harms is overprice, so like his compatriot, Kist, we have to go for him because there’s great value to be had.
Wesley Harms to beat Wes Newton: 5/4 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
And that’s it for Monday’s action. I’m hopeful we’ve got some more winners to add to the pile, even if the start of the night was a bit grim. We’ll be back tomorrow for more action from the Grand Slam of Darts.