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NBA betting tips for January 31st, 2024.
3-0 last night on Patreon!
W Pacers +7.5
W Knicks -4.5
W Warriors -3.5
The injury report was all over the place last night with guys I thought might be out ended up playing, but the results held up.
The Pacers are a fun team to back because they have no quit in them. They were down multiple times but kept coming back and making a game of it.
The Knicks may have been even more impressive as they played with just an eight-man rotation for much of the game with multiple starters playing 38+ minutes on a back-to-back. That’s the Tom Thibodeau we all know and love.
Finally, Embiid ended up playing against the Warriors but he wasn’t very effective and ended up leaving early with another injury. The Warriors took advantage of the shorthanded team. It’s crazy to see how much they are becoming Jonathan Kuminga’s team.
I love a winning night and I’m starting to feel really good about the new system. Let’s do it again.
Three games tonight.
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Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat Betting Tips:
The Heat are such a weird team. I know when the playoffs start that they are going to figure it out and be a real threat, but right now they look like crap. They’ve lost their last seven games and only one of those was anywhere near close. It was against the Hawks who couldn’t defend a bonsai tree.
Yet I’m always afraid to go against them because one day they are going to flip the switch and be one of the best teams in the East again.
The Kings have been playing well. They have the league’s best road record against the spread at 14-8-1. All my stats point to them being the favorite here, but they are +1.5 underdogs.
I have to take those points. Until the Heat show that they have woken up, I have to believe what I see.
Kings +1.5
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Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Tips:
Way too many injury questions here for me to pick a a side. This should be the game of the night if not for those injuries. The story of the NBA.
The Nuggets have Jokic listed as questionable while Holmgren and Dort are questionable for the Thunder with Jalen Williams being listed as out.
This is the fourth match-up between these teams this year and the Thunder are up 2-1. More importantly, all three of them have gone under the posted total.
In games against the top-ten teams in the NBA, both of these teams are in the top-ten in Defensive Rating. Denver plays at the third slowest pace in the NBA which should also help keep the scoring down.
A close one, but between the history, the injuries, and the pace – I like this under.
Nuggets/Thunder Under 228.5
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Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers Betting Tips:
This is Lillard’s homecoming and the second game under Doc Rivers for the Bucks.
They lost the first one, at Denver, they seemed to have a better plan in place though. I’m not sure I fully trust them yet but I did like what I saw.
That said, I really don’t trust the Blazers against good teams. Against top-ten teams, the Blazers have a -18 Net Rating this season.
The Bucks should play hard tonight. They are under a new coach, changing a lot of things, and figuring things out. You need to play to figure things out in the NBA so I think they are going to play minutes tonight.
Plus, the Dame factor is too strong to ignore. He loved Portland. I can see him giving them one more show.
Bucks -10.5
