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2-1 in MLB last night with two pitchers scratched from the start.
I’d love to take credit for those other two games as they both won, but I have rules about only betting the starting pitchers that are listed when I bet and I follow them. I’m a big rule follower.
I posted NBA Finals betting tips for tonight with my prop picks if you want to check those out. It ended up being too much to put in here as I have four picks for tonight in MLB.
Let’s get into them.
MLB Betting Tips:
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | 64 | 61 | 125 | 64 | 102 | 17 | 94 | 9 |
| CIN | 107 | 102 | 95 | 101 | 10 | 96 | 21 | |
| Luis Castillo | 94 | 75 | 90 | 110 | 112 | 27 | 99 | 13 |
| MIL | 101 | 114 | 108 | 90 | 20 | 99 | 19 |
We got the win with the Reds in the first five last night and now we’re doing the Brewers. Milwaukee really looked good last night as they came back huge after those first five innings. Their offense is improving of late and they could make Luis Castillo pay here.
That’s not why we’re betting them here though. This one is all about Brandon Woodruff. He has a 2.06 ERA/2.69 FIP, a huge strikeout rate, and a low homerun rate. His last start before the All-Star break saw him only allow one run against the Reds in six innings. A repeat of that and we have a win.
Pick: Bet Brewers First 5 Innings Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.80 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/17 12:31:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Odorizzi | 83 | 75 | 100 | 74 | 105 | 21 | 90 | 6 |
| CHW | 88 | 100 | 118 | 112 | 2 | 118 | 6 | |
| Lucas Giolito | 93 | 122 | 124 | 89 | 90 | 5 | 113 | 23 |
| HOU | 108 | 81 | 110 | 119 | 1 | 121 | 3 |
The margins on this one are razor thin, but the system likes the Astros in this spot. Jake Odorizzi has been very solid with a 3.61 ERA/3.44 FIP. He does a great job of keeping his walks down and not allowing a lot of homeruns which matches up nicely with this White Sox offense.
Lucas Giolito is a huge strikeout pitcher, but also a huge homerun pitcher. The Astros are one of the lowest strikeout teams in baseball and the best homerun hitting teams in baseball. A bad match-up for Gio.
Pick: Bet Astros First 5 Innings Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 2.04 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.04 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/17 12:31:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | 88 | 79 | 98 | 76 | 100 | 13 | 80 | 3 |
| STL | 89 | 96 | 85 | 88 | 25 | 80 | 28 | |
| Kwang-hyun Kim | 93 | 64 | 81 | 90 | 106 | 23 | 120 | 24 |
| SFG | 126 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 4 | 125 | 1 |
We took the Giants yesterday, but Kevin Gausman ended up not making the start. They did exactly what I said they would though as they dominated the Cardinals. I am expecting more of the same here. Kwang-hyun Kim is a solid pitcher and he could do well, but the Cardinals bullpen has been a mess and I don’t see them saving the day here.
Pick: Bet Giants Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.79 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -122 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/17 12:31:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Seattle Mariners at Los Angels Angels Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi | 104 | 115 | 105 | 99 | 85 | 1 | 77 | 2 |
| LAA | 117 | 98 | 84 | 108 | 6 | 121 | 3 | |
| Alex Cobb | 62 | 32 | 113 | 87 | 106 | 23 | 104 | 18 |
| SEA | 103 | 112 | 100 | 89 | 23 | 104 | 14 |
The Mariners make absolutely no sense. They are at -50 run differential for the season, but have a 49-43 record. They are not a good offense whatsoever, but they keep scraping things out.
Yusei Kikuchi has been their best starter this year, but he’s really nothing special and mostly average. The Angels as an offense have killed lefties this season with a 114 wRC+ and I expect them to continue to do so today.
Alex Cobb has been very good, but unlucky this year with a 4.23 ERA/2.61 FIP. He has a big strikeout rate and keeps his homeruns down. The Mariners strikeout a ton so he should have a good one today.
Pick: Bet Angels Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.68 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -137 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/17 12:31:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
