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MLB Betting Tips for July 18th, 2025.
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Now, onto the tips…
Four bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally, the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
SDP – Dylan Cease
WSN – Mike Soroka
Cease is a good pitcher with terrible results. He has a 6.27 ERA/3.53 FIP on the road this season. Normally, I’d think of that as a blip, but it just keeps happening.
The Nationals hit righties well with a 107 wRC+.
Soroka has a 5.67 ERA/3.82 FIP at home this season. With him, I think he’s closer to that ERA in talent level than his FIP. The bullpen behind him is weak and should help add runs late.
The Padres also have a 107 wRC+ against righties.
Padres/Nationals Over 8 Runs (-125)
San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
SFG – Justin Verlander
TOR – Chris Bassitt
This is all about the Jays offense. They have a 129 wRC+ at home and a 116 wRC+ over the past month.
Verlander is decent, but he’s been much better at home. He has a 4.99 ERA/4.65 FIP on the road this season.
The Giants were weak heading into the break, with an 87 wRC+ over the past month, and they’ve been worse on the road.
Bassitt’s home numbers are much better with a 2.81 ERA/2.96 FIP. The bullpen behind him has also been dealing.
Jays Moneyline (-145)
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Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
MIN – Chris Paddack
COL – Kyle Freeland
This is my biggest risk of the day, but it’s Coors Field with good hitting weather.
Paddack has a 6.93 ERA/4.30 FIP over his last five starts, and now he gets to pitch at the best hitting park in baseball. He’s not a big strikeout guy and relies on a lot of contact. This is not the park for that profile.
The Rockies offensive stats aren’t pretty, but they are averaging 4.11 runs per game at home, so this wouldn’t be wildly out of character. Moniak, Hunter, and Freeman are doing a lot right now. The trio all have wRC+ over 150 since June 1st. They should get us there.
Rockies Over 4.5 (-115)
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St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
STL – Andre Pallante
ARI – Brandon Pfaadt
Pfaadt had a rough time earlier this year, but he’s bounced back with a 4.34 ERA/3.25 FIP over his last five starts. He has been much better at home with a 4.27 ERA/2.93 FIP.
The Cardinals offense struggled into the break, and they have been a worse offense on the road.
Pallante has a 3.98 ERA/4.43 FIP on the road this season, and this is a tough match-up.
The Diamondbacks have a 122 wRC+ at home this season and a 123 wRC+ against righties. I think they win the game, but I’m not trusting the bullpen.
Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125)
