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I hate Sundays. All season long I’ve felt like the numbers are just a little bit off on Sunday and that felt to be the case yesterday. The less said about Sunday the better.
Let’s get on to a new week, new series and back to the winning ways.
The system and the tweaks I’ve made to it sometimes feels too right on. Take for instance today’s Red Sox/Orioles game. The line on this one opened at -164 and now sits around -178. The system says the Red Sox win would be by .75 runs (if they both play their average game). I usually figure .01 run = 1 dolllar. The Nationals/Brewers game has a differential of 0.06, the Nats are -106 favorites. Diamondbacks/Cubs is 0.05, the D-backs are -105. Right on.
So, while I’m sure Red Sox win, I’m looking for games that outdo that number or contradict it. Sometimes I have to go by feel and take more recent results in to play. Sometimes I have to be picky.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:
I feel pretty good about this pitching match-up. Corey Kluber is having another great season with a 2.76 ERA/3.43 FIP and he’s always great at home. The Pirates offenses is slightly below average and you have to think they are going to have trouble with Kluber today. The bullpen still worries me, but Kluber typically goes deep into games and that takes some of the guesswork out of the pen.
Trevor Williams is not Kluber. He has a 4.36 ERA/4.45 FIP with far worse numbers on the road. The Indians offense has been rocking lately, always play well at home and have a 108 wRC+ against righties on the season. This is a great place to lay the runs.
Bet Indians -1.5 (-138) at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]
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Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
This is a pure home/road play. Francisco Liriano has been worse on the road over the past couple of seasons, Heath Fillmyer has been better at home. Neither one of these offenses is great, but the Tigers have really been struggling as of late with just a .219/.274/.335 batting line over the past 30 days. That’s a wRC+ of 64 while the Royals have a 75 over the same period.
These are not the type of games that I normally play, but I feel like the price is right and if you were ever going to bet KC, this would be the game to do it. The Royals should win this one.
Bet Royals -105 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
The Angels crush righties (109 wRC+), Lucas Giolito is not a good pitcher and the White Sox bullpen is not great. This could be a big home win for the Angels and that’s exactly what I’m betting on.
Jaime Barria is having a decent season for a 22-year old with a 3.55 ERA/4.84 FIP. Most of his success has come at home and the White Sox offer a great opportunity for that continue as they have just a 93 wRC+ against righties. This is a lopsided match-up and I feel great about laying the runs here.
Bet Angels -1.5 (+105) at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]