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MLB Betting tips for July 25th, 2023.
A solid month on Patreon thus far with a 34-25 in MLB.
Five bets today. Three below, the rest are on Patreon.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
MIA – Edward Cabrera
TBR – Tyler Glasnow
Glasnow has really been cooking lately and settling into that Cy Young contender form. He has a 2.45 ERA/2.02 FIP with huge strikeouts. The Marlins have just a 92 wRC+ against righties and a 80 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Cabrera has a 4.50 ERA/4.55 FIP this season and the Rays offense is still dangerous. They have been down of late, but a 118 wRC+ against righties on the season is still in there somewhere. I don’t think it’s going to take much with Glasnow dominating.
Rays -0.5 First 5 Innings (-135)
Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
COL – Austin Gomber
WSN – Trevor Williams
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips:
KCR – Zack Greinke
CLE – Aaron Civale
It hurts me a little to bet against Greinke all the time as he might be the best pitcher of my lifetime. I remember his debut twenty years ago. Now he’s this. My kid is getting their license. It’s fine.
Maybe some day someone will feel this way about Aaron Civale because he’s been killing it lately with a 2.76 ERA/3.01 FIP. The Royals offense has been extremely weak against righties with just a 78 wRC+.
The Guardians offense is heating up with a 111 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Greinke is really struggling with a 7.56 ERA/6.48 FIP over his last five starts. The strikeouts are gone and the home runs are up.
Guardians -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
SEA – George Kirby
MIN – Pablo Lopez
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
TOR – Chris Bassitt
LAD – Julio Urias
Both of these pitchers have been solid of late, but all of the advantages go to LA here. Bassitt has actually out-pitched Urias this season, but I would still say Urias is the better pitcher and he has the better match-up here. The Dodgers are better against righties than the Jays are against lefties.
The key here though is the bullpen. The Jays have a 111 FIP- over the last two weeks while the Dodgers have a 76 FIP- over the same period. That plus home field should be the decision maker here.
Dodgers Moneyline (-135)