July 29th, 2020 MLB Betting Tips: Diamondbacks-Rangers, Nationals-Jays, White Sox-Indians

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2-0-1 last night.

We took the Padres over the Giants last night and they won the game 5-3. We also took the over on that one of 8 runs, but it ended up as a push. I said in the write-up that if you could get it at 7.5 then you should do it so hopefully that came in for some of you. I really felt like the Padres left a lot of runs on the board here, but a win is a win. Jeff Samardzija is who we thought he was as he gave up five runs in four innings with just one strikeout.

Our other pick was the Dodgers over the Astros and they got the 5-2 win. Walker Buehler only ended up pitching 3.2 innings here, but it didn’t matters as the bullpen didn’t allow a run the rest of the way. Things got a little chippy here with the Dodgers throwing at Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve, but they were able to socially distance without fighting so that was nice to see.

The two wins last night pushed the Bet MLB System tips to 6-2 on the year. A great start and it makes me excited for when we are going to unleash the full version when more regular season data enters into the equation.

Let’s keep it going with today’s tips. Three picks today, the first game starts at 4:05 Eastern and the other two start at 6:05 Eastern time so get them in early.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures SportsBetting.ag
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Diamondbacks: Madison Bumgarner 3.90 ERA/3.90 FIP (2019)
Rangers: Lance Lynn 3.67 ERA/3.13 FIP (2019)

Madison Bumgarner is a pitcher that we see things going poorly for this year as he moves from the friendly confines of San Francisco to Arizona. His strikeouts are declining, his walks are up, and he is going to give up some home runs. This Rangers offense isn’t the scariest thing out there, but they can still hit and it is looking like Madison could have a rough one today.

Meanwhile, Lance Lynn looks like he’s picking up where he left off in 2019. His first start saw him throw six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Rockies. The Diamomdbacks offense is yet to do much of anything at all with a .204/.267/.272 slash line thus far this season and I don’t see it getting much better here.

Bet Rangers -120

Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:

Nationals: Max Scherzer 2.92 ERA/2.45 FIP (2019)
Blue Jays: Nate Pearson 4.11 ERA/4.61 FIP (ZiPS Projection)

This one is pretty simple. Max Scherzer is the man and he’s either the best or, at worst, a top-three pitcher in this league. The Jays have a lot of young hitters with huge potential, but they have yet to put that all together and this is not the game where they are likely to break out. Scherzer had an average start his first time out against the Yankees and he has to be licking his lips for excitement to face this young offense. There will be strikeouts.

Nate Pearson is making his MLB debut here and the former first round pick could be in for a tough one. He was dominant at AA last year, but in three starts at Triple-A he managed a 3.00 ERA/4.07 FIP with a 7.5 K/9 rate. It seems like this may be a case where he would’ve spent more time in the minors this year if there actually was a minor leagues. Instead, he’ll make his first start of his career against one of the best in the game and probably lose.

This line is a little high to go moneyline on, but when you consider Max Scherzer is starting – you take those odds.

Bet Nationals -167

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

White Sox: Lucas Giolito 3.41 ERA/3.43 FIP (2019)
Indians: Zach Plescac 3.81 ERA/4.94 FIP (2019)

Small sample size alert: The White Sox offense has been dominant. They have a .353 wOBA on the early season and are tied for the major league lead with 10 homeruns. They are a dangerous offense and I don’t like how that projects for Plesac here today. He’s a solid middle of the road starter, but he’s not a good strikeout pitcher and his 1.49 HR/9 rate against a hot offense could get him in trouble.

Lucas Giolito is a risk as he had an awful first start of the season where he gave up seven runs to the Twins. The good news is that the Indians are not the Twins on offense, not even close. Gio is too good of a strikeout pitcher to get hit that hard again here and I think the Indians offense has enough holes in it that he’ll be able to bounce back strong here.

Bet White Sox -115

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