July 31st, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

A 3-1 record last night!

MLB Betting Tips:

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Nathan Eovaldi 60 30 100 50 95 8 109 18
TBR   104 112 113 102 9 115 7
Ryan Yarbrough 102 103 84 51 85 1 66 1
BOS   107 98 89 104 7 100 19

Eovaldi has been excellent this season with a 3.49 ERA/2.48 FIP. He’s very good at keeping his walks down and limiting homeruns which takes away the things that the Rays do especially well. He’s the best starter on the board today and I like him at this price for the first five.

Ryan Yarbrough is about an average pitcher, but I think the Red Sox will take him deep early.

Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.89 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/31 12:22:59 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Tyler Anderson 102 116 85 64 86 2 96 10
TEX   101 103 94 84 28 40 30
Taylor Hearn 119 130 106 137 100 14 97 11
SEA   103 113 102 91 20 108 12

Tyler Anderson makes his Seattle debut here and I expect him to have some success. The Rangers have just an 82 wRC+ against lefties on the season and that number includes Joey Gallo who is no longer with the team. For whatever it’s worth, Anderson has been better on the road this season.

The Rangers will send Taylor Hearn to the mound here. Not the biggest sample size on him, but he’s been hit hard. The Mariners offense has some bright spots with Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, and Jared Kelenic hitting well of late.

Pick: Bet Mariners Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.71 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -135 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/31 12:22:59 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Triston McKenzie 121 131 126 188 91 5 98 12
CHW   88 100 115 108 3 80 28
Dallas Keuchel 116 110 61 84 93 6 114 20
CLE   105 101 89 87 26 81 27

This is a home/road pick. These pitchers have similar numbers in the FIP department, but the splits are big on both sides. Keuchel has been much better at home, McKenzie has been much better on the road.

The White Sox have the much better offense here with a 107 wRC+ against right handers. The Indians don’t have a great offense.

It’s that simple.

Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 2.04 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.04 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/31 12:22:59 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Brandon Woodruff 61 54 128 71 103 19 117 21
ATL   117 109 102 99 15 101 17
Kyle Muller 76 38 120 150 99 12 86 5
MIL   101 113 107 91 20 119 5

The Brewers will once again send a great starter to the mound against the Braves. Last night, the wind was kind of crazy and we saw some big runs put up. I don’t think that will be the case here and Brandon Woodruff should look good. He has a 2.14 ERA/2.60 FIP on the season. The Braves have a 100 wRC+ against righties on the season.

Muller is a pitcher who has performed well, but there are a few red flags. He’s running a low .230 BABIP on the season and has a higher than normal 78.9% left on base percentage. He has a 3.3% HR/FB rate which is far below what you would expect from him. He had a 15.4% HR/FB rate in his nine minor league starts this season. The Brewers offense has been hot of late and I think they can get it for us again here.

Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -110 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/31 12:22:59 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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