June 15th, 2021 NBA Playoffs & MLB Betting Tips

A 2-1 in the NBA last night.

Let’s keep the winning ways going with one NBA and three MLB picks for June 15th, 2021.

Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets Betting Tips:

It’s crazy how the NBA Playoffs can just turn on a dime. In the first half of game three, even with the Bucks up, I was confident that this team was toast and that the Nets were going to go on to win the Eastern Conference. Now, I’m convinced they are going to win it all.

Injuries play a big, big factor in this of course. Kyrie Irving is out and James Harden is listed as doubtful for game five which is absolutely a must-win for the Milwaukee Bucks in my opinion. Harden is doing his best to play in this game, but even if he does – his health should be a concern and it’s hard to imagine him going for 50 tonight even if he does play. The longer this series go on, the healthier those two players get. A win here sets the Bucks up to close it out at home for game six.

This line has been all over the place, but I feel comfortable taking the Bucks up to -4 here. They have the momentum on their side and they seemed to figure something out in game four that we haven’t seen from this team yet. They exploited Blake Griffin and the Nets offense was Kevin Durant vs. All. That’s no way to get things done and I think Milwaukee grabs another win here tonight.

Pick: Bet Bucks -3

USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/15 1:38:48 PM EST but are subject to change.)

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Alec Mills 147 133 58 103 88 4 95 10
NYM   79 104 95 98 14 116 8
Taijuan Walker 71 26 103 110 86 2 112 20
CHC   112 110 95 99 13 82 26

Taijuan Walker has been one of the better signings off the offseason and he’s been excellent at home this year. He has a 2.07 ERA/2.84 FIP on the season and the Cubs offense has been nearly average against righties while being cold of late.

While the Mets offense is heating up and gets a kind match-up against Alec Mills. A good price on the F5 here.

Pick: Bet -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/15 1:38:48 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Eduardo Rodriguez 94 117 108 72 97 10 127 27
ATL   140 109 103 102 11 97 20
Tucker Davidson 87 45 83 111 105 19 105 18
BOS   115 100 82 101 12 81 27

This pick is all about homeruns. Eduardo Rodriguez gives them up, one allowed in each of his past four games (three of which saw him give up four or more runs), and the Braves hit them more than any team in the National League.

The Braves hit lefties well and the Red Sox bullpen has struggled of late. An easy pick for the Braves at home here.

Pick: Bet Braves Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -112 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.89 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/15 1:38:48 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Luis Castillo 109 111 85 102 116 30 145 30
MIL   97 115 104 86 26 108 12
Brett Anderson 139 139 48 85 109 22 92 6
CIN   124 97 96 108 5 131 3

Luis Castillo is one of the most extreme cases between ERA and FIP in the league. He has a 6.47 ERA with a 4.56 FIP. The big issue has been the left on base percentage which sits at just 55%. That’s way below his career average of 71.6%. He also has a high BABIP at .335, compared to his career average of 2.83. The dude has been unlucky. The Brewers offense has been bad against righties on the season and I think he can get a little bit of that luck back here.

It should help to have Brett Anderson on the opposite mound. He has a 4.99 ERA/5.60 FIP on the season and the Reds offense has been mashing lately.

Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -108 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.92 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/15 1:38:48 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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