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Two NBA picks and three MLB system picks for June 18th, 2021.
Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks Betting Tips:
The Sixers are coming off one of the all-time playoff collapses and now see themselves facing elimination on the road. That could be reason for alarm, but we did just see the Bucks comeback after a loss like that and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 76ers do the same here.
That said, I do not trust this team at all and I won’t be betting on them for the full game. However, I will be betting on them for the first half. They have taken the first half of the last four games of this series and I see no reason that changes here. They should be highly motivated on both ends of the floor to start strong.
Outside of that first game, Philly has had no issues starting strong. It’s finishing where it gets messed up so let’s just bet on the start.
Pick: 76ers -2 First Half
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/18 1:35:10 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers Betting Tips:
A lot of times you see a big injury and then the team with that injury comes out and surprises people. That’s what happened in the last game. Kawhi Leonard was out and the rest of the Clippers stepped up to take the series lead. I have no proof to back this up, but I really think that this is a scenario where the opposing team sort of breathe a sigh of relief and think they have this thing wrapped up without that star player. The way the Jazz came out, you could tell that they weren’t as aggressive as you need to be in a playoff game.
If they had showed up strong, there is no doubt in my mind that we’d be potentially seeing an elimination game here. Now, they find themselves in a position where they need to win two straight in order to advance. I think that they can do that with Kawhi on the shelf and I’m a bit surprised by this betting line.
This is similar to what we saw with the Bucks/Nets series. KD and company laid it all on the line to win game five and then couldn’t quite do it again in game six. That should be the case here for the Clippers. They gave their best punch in game five, I can’t see them repeating it in game six.
Pick: Bet Jazz -2.5
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/18 1:35:10 PM EST but are subject to change.)
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios | 89 | 94 | 109 | 75 | 111 | 25 | 100 | 12 |
| TEX | 108 | 107 | 96 | 87 | 26 | 84 | 24 | |
| Mike Foltynewicz | 138 | 168 | 66 | 66 | 103 | 16 | 153 | 30 |
| MIN | 80 | 98 | 98 | 104 | 9 | 109 | 9 |
This is an easy pick for me. Jose Berrios is a very solid pitcher going against a cold offense. Mike Foltynewicz has given up a ton of homeruns this season and faces a team with a lot of good power hitters.
Easy money.
Pick: Bet Twins -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/18 1:35:10 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 24 | 25 | 172 | 45 | 108 | 22 | 92 | 7 |
| COL | 129 | 101 | 86 | 79 | 30 | 91 | 21 | |
| Antonio Senzatela | 98 | 78 | 61 | 61 | 113 | 27 | 98 | 10 |
| MIL | 100 | 116 | 106 | 84 | 28 | 81 | 26 |
This game is in Coors Field which is usually a warning sign for pitchers, but the Rockies offense is so good and Burnes is so good that I don’t really see an issue going against him here. The Rockies offense has just a 69 wRC+ against right handed pitchers which is nice, but not good at all.
The Milwaukee offense doesn’t do much for me, but Christian Yelich is in the lineup and that’s enough for me to back them.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -140 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.71 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/18 1:35:10 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Velasquez | 126 | 162 | 113 | 143 | 110 | 23 | 118 | 24 |
| SFG | 80 | 109 | 112 | 109 | 4 | 132 | 3 | |
| Johnny Cueto | 97 | 88 | 76 | 53 | 107 | 20 | 67 | 2 |
| PHI | 114 | 113 | 93 | 93 | 17 | 94 | 20 |
Vince Velasquez is one of those pitchers that I don’t trust at all. He’s got great strikeout numbers, but he always struggles with giving up homeruns and walking people. I’ll always take the risk that he’ll have an elite strikeout night because the other two stats are just that juicy. The Giants offense has been red hot lately with a 132 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
The Phillies are weak against righties and Cueto is just craft enough to handle them. We’ve also seen the Giants bullpen perform very well over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Giants Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -122 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/18 1:35:10 PM EST but are subject to change.)
