June 1st, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Vin

MLB System picks for June 1st, 2021.

A 2-0 on the 28th pushed us to 33-22 in May, +8.79 units.

That brings us to 57-55 for the season which is pretty impressive when you consider that we had started 1-11. Take away those first three days of the season and we are 56-45 on the year. At this pace we should be in the black by July.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Dylan Cease 3.26 91 107 148 82 2 94 11
CLE   103 98 86 86 25 91 18
Shane Bieber 2.94 98 124 66 91 8 83 5
CHW   87 121 114 114 2 101 11

Shane Bieber is great, but is he enough to overcome a great offense when his team is likely to not score very many runs? The System says no. The Indians have a very slight advantage when comparing the two starters, but the White Sox offense should succeed later in the game.

Pick: Bet White Sox Moneyline

Best Odds: 2.38 (+138) at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Aaron Nola 2.97 94 117 87 110 21 116 24
CIN   124 92 104 104 9 92 16
Sonny Gray 3.92 95 113 119 110 21 120 25
PHI   85 93 88 88 24 76 27

A very similar pick to the above one. Nola is very good, but the Reds have just been crushing the ball this season. They are one of the top homerun hitting teams in the league and are playing at home, a homerun friendly park.

The Phillies offense has just an 85 wRC+ against righties on the season and they have a wRC+ of just 76 over the past two weeks. Throw in the bullpen troubles and I have no issue tipping the Reds here.

Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline

Best Odds: 1.89 (-112) at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Garrett Richards 3.84 88 95 116 89 6 96 14
HOU   100 100 117 117 1 115 4
Luis Garcia 4.27 115 111 166 119 29 143 30
BOS   115 82 109 109 5 99 12

Both of these pitchers have been solid this season, but these are two of the best offenses in the league and I can see both of their days being shorter than usual.

Neither bullpen has impressed much this season, but this one is all about the offenses. The Red Sox have a 109 wRC+ on the season against righties. The Astros have a 112 wRC+ against righties. There will be runs.

Pick: Bet Red Sox/Astros Over 8.5

Best Odds: 1.90 (-110) at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Dane Dunning 3.1 79 96 116 96 11 95 12
COL   80 89 74 74 30 53 30
German Marquez 3.93 103 107 93 117 28 129 28
TEX   101 95 93 93 17 69 29

This pick isn’t so much a bet on the Rangers as a bet against the Rockies. They stink.

Dunning has been very good this season and he just gets the easiest match-up imaginable. The Rockies have a 65 wRC+ against righties on the season and just a 53 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Pick: Bet Rangers Moneyline

Best Odds: 1.92 (-108) at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Andrew Heaney 4.42 123 114 81 115 26 140 29
SFG   128 113 104 104 9 115 4
Alex Wood 3.47 96 98 83 123 30 113 22
LAA   108 80 101 101 13 94 14

I know this is a pitcher’s park and these are two solid starters, but seven runs? In this environment? You gotta be joking me.

Both of the bullpens here are not shy about giving up runs and both offenses have hit lefties very well this season. I’d probably bet over at 7.5 or 8. At 7? I’m all over it.

Pick: Bet Angels/Giants Over 7

Best Odds: 1.97 (-103) at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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