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2-1 last night on Patreon.
W Reds/Orioles Over 10 Runs
L Twins/Braves Over 8.5
W Angels Moneyline
Five tips today on Patreon. Three are available free below.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
SDP – Yu Darvish
PIT – Rich Hill
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Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
MIN – Joe Ryan
ATL – Bryce Elder
Last night I considered going with Braves team over instead of the game over. It still wouldn’t have come in, but it would have at least been close. They are the hot offense, they are at home, and they are the one that crushes righties.
Ryan is coming off his best start of the year, but three of the four before that were pretty rough. The weather is against him today with hot temps and winds blowing out, and offenses don’t get much better than the Braves right now. A 158 wRC+ over the past two weeks is just amazing. The Braves hit the bullpen yesterday and I think they can again today.
Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-125)
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Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
DET – Matt Manning
TEX – Martin Perez
Manning is being reinstated for this one and I don’t see it going very well. He’s only made two starts this year and he wasn’t very sharp. The projections have him at a 4.92 ERA/4.71 FIP. The Rangers offense is amazing at home with a 135 wRC+. They have a 117 wRC+ against righties this season.
Perez has had his struggles of late, but the Tigers are a nice match-up. They don’t hit lefties well and they have just a 75 wRC+ on the road.
Rangers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-139)
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:
NYY – Jhony Brito
OAK – Paul Blackburn
It’s only been five starts, but Blackburn is a good starter. He has a 4.21 ERA/2.99 FIP this season and he’s pitching at home against a cold offense. The Yanks have just a 70 wRC+ over the past two weeks and an 82 wRC+ over the past month. No Judge, no hit.
Brito is not great with a 5.31 ERA/5.53 FIP, but neither is the Athletics offense. They have just an 85 wRC+ against righties and a 65 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The bullpen behind him is very good.
These offenses don’t scare me at all today. The Athletics bullpen scares me a little, but I am confident in the ineptitude of the hitting.
Yankees/Athletics Under 8 Runs (-120)
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Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
WSN – Jake Irvin
SEA – Bryan Woo
