June 4th, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

An undefeated 2-0 record last night.

The Yankees and Orioles game was called shortly after the tips went up. That’s just what you get sometimes when you write these tips early and all the information isn’t quite out there yet.

That was also the case in our win with the Cubs. We loved Jon Lester against this Mets team, but when the lineup dropped it showed no Kris Bryant, no Anthony Rizzo and no Ben Zobrist. *gulp* My play was in and the tips were posted so there wasn’t any taking back. Thankfully, Lester showed up big time, running a no-hitter for much of the game and the Cubs managed to scratch together two runs to cover the -1.5.

Our other bet was the Padres over the Reds and this one played out just like I hoped it would. Tyson Ross was solid and Luis Castillo wasn’t. The Padres won easily, 6-2.

We’re back to even money for the month of June and today’s picks should push us into the black. Today is a weird one as there is only five games on the schedule and two of them are part of a doubleheader. Just a weird scheduling quirk of the MLB season. The MLB Draft is today so if you’re interested in guys that may be stars in four to six years, today’s your day.

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Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees Game 2 Betting Tips:

I’m going to quote what I said about Domingo German yesterday with a slight tweak at the end.

I’m a fan of Domingo German here. While his ERA isn’t pretty, his underlying numbers reek of a guy due for some regression. He is sitting at a 5.45 ERA/4.56 FIP/3.67 xFIP on the year with some huge strikeout numbers. He faces off against a bad Orioles Tigers offense that has just a .676 .706 OPS on the year against righties. This is a nice match-up.

He’ll go against Mike Fiers who is a solid, but unspectacular pitcher. The number on his stat line that really jumps out to me is the 1.81 HR/9. This is not the offense to have homer issues against. His FIP is north of 5 and I like the Yankees to dominate both ends of this match-up. Unfortunately, only the second has decent odds and I’ll be laying the runs in that one.

Bet Yankees -1.5 (-130) at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

I’ve been off the Braves a bit since Ronald Acuna went down with the injury, but this is still a pretty dangerous offense. They are tops in the league in OPS against lefties and I think Clayton Richard is a nice match-up for them. He has a 4.74 ERA/4.14 FIP and while he is a MUCH better pitcher at home, I think the Braves offense should get to him here.

Julio Teheran is a sink or swim pitcher, but when you are facing an offense with a .652 OPS against righties, you’re probably going to swim. He has some ugly games on his gamelog, but he has back-to-back quality starts against the Mets and Red Sox who are far better offenses and those games were in far less forgiving parks. I am expecting the good version of Teheran today.

Bet the Braves -114 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:

I think I am ready to trust the Diamondbacks again. After going through an awful hitting slump, they have started to turn the corner thanks mostly to dingers. They’ve also started winning again. Funny how that works. Despite all their struggles this year, they are still have a .785 OPS against lefty pitchers which is good for 8th in the league. They face Derek Holland tonight who is walking nearly four per game, has a 1.39 HR/9 with a 4.94 ERA/4.76 FIP. This is not a great match-up for him.

Zack Godley is only slight better with his 4.38 ERA/4.44 FIP, but when he keeps his walks down he is a pretty darn good pitcher. Well, he has a good chance to keep his walks down as the Giants’ 7% walk rate is third worst in the league. They also strikeout 24.9% of the time so this game plays to Godley’s strengths. I think the Diamondbacks are a great play here.

Bet Arizona -112 at:[text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

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