June 4th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Vin

MLB System picks for June 4th, 2021.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Max Scherzer 3.25 109 136 70 98 14 75 3  
PHI   85 117 94 92 21 96 18  
Zack Wheeler 2.53 93 101 78 108 21 111 22  
WSN   87 99 85 93 18 85 24

Look, if I get the chance to bet Max Scherzer at this price I’m going to take it. He has some elite strikeout stuff and the Phillies strikeout a ton. The bullpen behind him has been performing very well of late and they should be able to get the job done here.

Wheeler is actually having the better season thus far, but I do not trust the bullpen behind him at all.

Pick: Bet Nationals Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: +104 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.04 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Julio Urias 2.82 102 113 81 97 12 103 18
ATL   140 109 100 102 11 125 2
Ian Anderson 3.3 94 116 146 106 19 106 21
LAD   113 102 121 112 3 112 5

I like both of these pitchers, but I like the offenses a heck of a lot more here today. It should be pretty warm with a light breeze blowing out to left. These are two of the best offenses in the league and two of the best homerun hitting teams.

Again, both starters are solid – I just don’t see them going very deep into the game. The bullpens behind them are painfully average so I think they’ll be able to do some damage there.

Pick: Bet Dodgers/Braves Over 8.5

USA: Best Odds: -122 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Matt Peacock 4.53 104 72 119 111 22 88 10
MIL   97 116 99 84 28 91 20
Freddy Peralta 2.94 107 136 132 111 22 90 11
ARI   87 102 96 93 18 101 13

This is a game where the system likes the Diamondbacks to win, but only by a small amount. However, the betting line on this game is like -200 in favor of the Brewers. The D-backs don’t hit my threshold for betting on the moneyline, but this is such a good value it would feel weird to pass it up.

Peralta is much better than Peacock, but this is just a deal where the Brewers offense is just so weak that it’s hard to have faith in them. They have just a 77 wRC+ against righties om the season. I can see the Brewers winning, but a one-run game is likely.

Pick: Bet Diamondbacks +1.5

USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Spencer Turnbull 2.8 89 96 114 117 28 90 11
CHW   87 99 119 114 2 106 8
Dallas Keuchel 4.33 94 75 91 80 2 60 1
DET   79 117 97 85 26 94 19

The stats are showing the Tigers as the worst team in baseball against lefties. Just a 67 wRC+ and Keuchel is a groundball machine. Just a bad match-up for Detroit all around. The White Sox bullpen has been particularly excellent of late as well.

Turnbull is having a great season, but he’s facing one of the best offenses in the league here. The bullpen backing him up is very hittable.

Pick: Bet White Sox Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -147 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.68 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Frankie Montas 4.67 109 104 93 91 8 77 4
COL   80 103 89 76 30 81 26
Jon Gray 4.06 115 95 110 117 28 104 19
OAK   110 100 110 107 5 120 3

Another line where I just don’t get it. This is a borderline moneyline play according to the system as the Athletics should win this one easily. The Rockies offense just absolutely stinks with a 65 wRC+ against righties.

Gray is an average pitcher facing a tough AL offense that is hitting the ball very well of late. This pick couldn’t be any easier.

Pick: Bet Athletics Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -128 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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