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MLB System picks for June 9th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 76 | 29 | 98 | 118 | 80 | 1 | 86 | 10 |
| BAL | 90 | 97 | 89 | 99 | 14 | 126 | 3 | |
| Matt Harvey | 106 | 116 | 77 | 81 | 96 | 12 | 79 | 5 |
| NYM | 79 | 103 | 95 | 94 | 17 | 118 | 5 |
It feels like the Mets are starting to hit the ball and that makes them very dangerous. They have a 118 wRC+ over the past two weeks and Matt Harvey is a pitcher I have no issues betting against. The former Met faced his former team earlier this season and gave up seven runs. He’s allowed five or more in three of his past four starts.
An easy bet on the Mets here.
Pick: Bet Mets Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -128 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/09 12:40:52 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | 139 | 149 | 52 | 80 | 110 | 22 | 82 | 6 |
| CIN | 124 | 97 | 93 | 105 | 7 | 104 | 11 | |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | 113 | 78 | 62 | 138 | 117 | 29 | 128 | 30 |
| MIL | 97 | 115 | 102 | 86 | 26 | 103 | 12 |
I’m not in love with Guiterrez, but the system likes the Reds a lot here. Anderson is very hittable and the Reds are one of the better homerun hitting teams.
The Brewers offense has been the worst in the league against right handed pitching this season.
Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -121 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.82 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/09 12:40:52 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Odorizzi | 138 | 184 | 98 | 111 | 114 | 27 | 125 | 29 |
| BOS | 115 | 100 | 82 | 104 | 9 | 83 | 26 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 60 | 23 | 97 | 58 | 89 | 5 | 97 | 16 |
| HOU | 100 | 76 | 104 | 119 | 1 | 134 | 1 |
I added in the current season home/road splits and that stat really takes the Red Sox over the top here. The system likes the Red Sox regardless, but Eovaldi has a 4.47 ERA/1.88 FIP at home this year and I like this match-up for him.
Odorizzi has been hit hard this season and the Red Sox offense are capable of doing just that.
Pick: Bet Red Sox Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/09 12:40:52 PM EST but are subject to change.)
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 46 | 60 | 152 | 44 | 87 | 4 | 91 | 13 |
| MIN | 120 | 98 | 102 | 105 | 7 | 102 | 13 | |
| Randy Dobnak | 114 | 117 | 64 | 65 | 113 | 25 | 105 | 19 |
| NYY | 101 | 105 | 121 | 95 | 16 | 85 | 24 |
The Yankees haven’t quite been what you expect from the Yankees thus far, but Gerrit Cole is still amazing and this team is still an offensive threat against a below average pitcher.
I know the Twins offense is good, but this line just makes no sense to me. Cole has a 2.26 ERA/1.90 FIP on the season. Dobnak has a 6.19 ERA/4.65 FIP. This game is a steal at this price.
Pick: Bet Yankees First 5 Runline -0.5
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/09 12:40:52 PM EST but are subject to change.)
