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MLB betting tips for May 24th, 2024.
4-0 last time! 93-60 on the season!
W Pirates First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125)
W Rangers/Phillies Over 9.5 Runs (-122)
W Yankees -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)
W Braves/Cubs Over 8.5 (-115)
Another undefeated night, I love it.
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Four bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
MIL – Bryse Wilson
BOS – Kutter Crawford
This is one of my favorite hitting parks with warm temps and winds blowing out to right field at 11MPH. Yes, please.
It’s unlikely we’ll see Wilson go more than four innings, but I think he’s overdue for some regression. He has a 2.79 ERA/4.95 FIP thanks to a very low BABIP and a very high left-on-base percentage. His walk rate has also been higher than usual, and I think he’s due to get hit. He is not as good as his stats would have you believe.
The Red Sox have not hit at home thus far which is strange. They are showing signs of life of late, and I don’t think their home woes will last forever. One area they have not disappointed is in the power department. That should work out well as Wilson has a 1.4 HR/9 rate.
Crawford had a hot start, but he’s come down to earth a bit with a 3.52 ERA/3.43 FIP over his last five starts. The ZiPS rest of the season projection has him with an ERA/FIP in the 4s so there is room for him to grow.
The Brewers offense has been amazing with a 119 wRC+ against righties. They have been remarkably consistent all season.
These are two of the better bullpens in baseball, but the weather should help us get over the top.
Brewers/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs (-114)
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Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
CHC – Shota Imanaga
STL – Miles Mikolas
Imanaga has been amazing to start the season with just a 0.84 ERA/2.21 FIP, and the Cardinals have struggled against lefties. They have just a 77 wRC+ against them without a lot of power.
Mikolas is a great target. He doesn’t strike many out and he gives up home runs. He has a 5.77 ERA/4.61 FIP on the season.
The Cubs have been about average against righties which should be enough.
Cubs -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
PHI – Cristopher Sanchez
COL – Ty Blach
I should probably have bet the Phillies a lot more than I have thus far. They have a 37-14 start to the season, including 9-1 over their last ten and six straight wins. Now, they face one of the weaker offenses in baseball and have a great hitting match-up.
Sanchez has a 3.31 ERA/2.59 FIP with a big groundball rate. It is still Coors, but it’s a great match-up for him as the Rockies have just a 79 wRC+ against lefties.
On the other hand, the Phillies crush lefties with a 120 wRC+ against them with big walk numbers and nice power.
Blach is listed as the starter, but he’ll likely only go around three innings. Still, that should be enough for the Phillies to do damage. He has a 5.14 ERA/3.38 FIP, but he’s closer to the ERA than the FIP. He’s a low strikeout pitcher with a home run rate that is due to go up.
The Rockies bullpen has a 6.48 ERA/6.50 FIP over the last two weeks.
Phillies -1.5 (-132)
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Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
MIA – Braxton Garrett
ARI – Zac Gallen
Gallen has a 3.04 ERA/3.14 FIP this season, but he’s been lights out at home as those numbers drop to 1.52/1.95.
Tonight he’ll face a Marlins offense that holds just an 88 wRC+ against righties with no patience or power.
Arizona’s offense has been frustrating, but they absolutely crush lefties with a 129 wRC+. They’ve hit better at home as well.
Garrett is about an average pitcher across the board by projections, but he’s been awful to start his season. He’s made two starts and allowed 5 or more in both.
Marlins Diamondbacks -0.5 First 5 Innings (-105)
