May 7th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-1 record last night.

We took two overs last night and both of them hit. The Yankees scored seven runs on the Mariners and Felix Hernandez in the first three innings of the game and after that it was just a waiting game to get those couple extra runs to put us over. A Dee Gordon homer of all things got us there and the Yankees held on to win 7-3.

We also took the over in the Cubs/Marlins game. I liked the Cubs to score here and they started the game with three in the first. They really left some runs on the table there too and I was slightly worried. Then Cole Hamels had the trouble that I predicted and we were tied at 3, locking in the push at the very least. The Cubs bullpen wasn’t able to hold the lead as Pedro Strop couldn’t find the plate in the ninth and the Marlins ended up taking this one.

Our one loss was the Nationals against the Brewers. The box score does and doesn’t tell the story here. The Nationals had four errors in this one which led to two unearned runs. There were also wild pitches by relievers in key times. Where the box doesn’t tell the story is the Brewers’ seventh inning when they got a couple of extremely lucky hits to start the rally. Just little dribblers that weren’t hit hard that fell between and led to runs. Tough game.

Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

I have to go back to the well here for much of the same reasons as I went with the Nationals yesterday.

The Brewers will use an opener in this game to try and protect Freddy Peralta who has been awful in first innings this season. The strikeout numbers have been there, but he’s been giving up walks and homeruns like crazy. He’s not looked good with a 8.31 ERA/6.70 FIP on the year. A lot of that was his last start (that I was there for, yay) and I am just untrusting of this guy right now.

Stephen Strasburg is a great pitcher with a 3.45 ERA/3.14 FIP thus far this season. The Brewers offense is good, but not great against righties and I think he can do well here.

Bet Nationals -106

Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

Deja vu. I am going with the over here again.

The Marlins send Caleb Smith to the mound. He’s been great with a 2.00 ERA/2.84 FIP thus far, but he’s also been very lucky. He’s posted a .224 BABIP and 90% left on base percentage this season. He’ll be in a tough road environment here and he’s pitching far above his projections thus far. I think he’s due for some regression and the Cubs can punish lefties.

Jon Lester has a very similar profile thus far. He has a 1.73 ERA/3.37 FIP on the year with a .231 BABIP and a 96% left on base percentage. The Marlins aren’t the toughest team, but they showed last night they can score and Lester is also due for some regression.

Bet Cubs/Marlins Over 6.5

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