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MLB betting tips for May 7th, 2024.
2-0 last night.
W Mariners/Twins Under 8 Runs (-118)
W Dodgers -1.5 (-137)
An 11-3-1 start to May. That brings the overall record to 65-45 on Patreon.
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All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
ARI – Zac Gallen
CIN – Frankie Montas
The Reds offense is loaded with exciting players, but they are really not getting it done against right-handed pitching. They have just an 80 wRC+ against them, and over the last two weeks, they have just a 54 wRC+. This offense is down bad right now.
It is unlikely to get better today with Zac Gallen on the mound. He’s started the year with a 3.38 ERA/3.52 FIP. It’s about where he’s expected to be with room to improve. This match-up could do that.
Montas has a 4.19 ERA/5.26 FIP this year. His strikeouts have been low, and his walks and homers have been high. Not a great combo.
The Diamondbacks aren’t the strongest offense against righties with an 88 wRC+, but they are the much better of the two with a much better match-up.
Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Moneyline (-130)
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Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
TOR – José Berríos
PHI – Cristopher Sanchez
Berrios’ stats are screaming for regression. A 1.44 ERA/4.01 FIP will not last, especially with such a low BABIP, high left-on-base percentage, and low strikeout rate.
The Phillies offense has a 113 wRC+ against righties, and has been playing well of late with a 129 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Sanchez’s stats are a bit more real. He has a 3.68 ERA/2.94 FIP with a high BABIP and low left-on-base percentage. His strikeout numbers are much better and he has a great groundball rate.
The Jays have hit lefties well, but they’ve been cold of late with an 83 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Phillies First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125)
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
SDP – Randy Vásquez
CHC – Shota Imanaga
Winds are blowing out here which is always a boon to hitters, but I am going to roll with Imanaga. He has a 0.78 ERA/2.22 FIP with good strikeouts and very few walks. His HR/FB rate is bound to go up, especially with the wind at Wrigley, at some point.
The Padres can hit home runs but are below average against lefties overall with a 92 wRC+. They might hit one out, but I don’t see a lot of runs.
The key thing here is the Cubs match-up against Vasquez. He’s been hit hard in his first two starts, and the projections have him at a 4.43 ERA/4.56 FIP. There will be a home run given up by him today.
The Cubs offense has a 97 wRC+ against righties with above-average power. They’ve also been great at home with a 128 wRC+.
Cubs -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
NYM – Jose Butto
STL – Miles Mikolas
This is a line that makes no sense to me. I have the Mets favored, but the sportsbooks have the opposite.
Mikolas has a 5.68 ERA/4.72 FIP on the season. He’s never been a big strikeout guy and he’s a flyball pitcher. That’s a combo that typically leads to runs.
The Mets aren’t the most dangerous offense, but a 103 wRC+ should be strong enough.
That’s because the Cardinals have just an 88 wRC+ against righties and a 74 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Butto has a 2.57 ERA/3.68 FIP in his first five starts. He has a low home run rate, but the Cardinals have been the weakest team in all of baseball in that category. I’m not worried about them.
Mets +0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
MIA – Edward Cabrera
LAD – Yoshinobu Yamamoto
This match-up truly feels unfair.
Yamamoto has a 2.91 ERA/2.61 FIP with a monster strikeout rate. The Marlins have just an 88 wRC+ against righties this season without many positives.
Cabrera is a decent pitcher who has had some awful luck to start the year with a 6.05 ERA/2.94 FIP. His truth is somewhere in the middle with ZiPS having him at a 4.34 ERA/4.25 FIP for the rest of the season. Walks have been a struggle for him and today he goes against not only the most patient team in the league but also the best hitting.
Dodgers -1.5 (-134)
