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The NFL week is over, there are no college games and the NHL and NBA are still in the preseason. Tonight is all about baseball and this one-game playoff to the American League Division series.
The Yankees were one of the best teams in the American League this season. They had the second best run differential in all of baseball this year, they have the Rookie of the Year and possible MVP in Aaron Judge and their bullpen is one of the best in all of baseball. They are a big favorite here for a reason, they are a lot better team.
Minnesota in a lot of ways is lucky to be here. They wouldn’t have been here just seven years ago when they only had one Wild Card team and they wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for some good fortune down the stretch. This is a team that actually were sellers at the trade deadline and now they are here.
This is one of the biggest differences in talent in the Wild Card playoff era, but this is still a one-game playoff and anything can happen.
MLB Betting Tips:
The thing about this game is that Luis Severino is probably the best pitcher in the American League not named Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. He’s just 23 years old, but he’s touching 100 mph on the radar gun and his 2.98 ERA was third in the AL. The surprising thing about him to me is that, despite getting near a career high in innings pitched (by a lot), he actually got better in the second half when he had just a 2.28 ERA. He’s really good and the Twins are in trouble.
He’s going against Ervin Santana who I would say is the definition of “fine”. Some good luck got his ERA to 3.28 as his FIP has him begged at 4.46. He’s a crafty, veteran pitcher that can go deep into baseball games. He’s the kind of guy you want in a game like this as he won’t kill you and he should keep the Twins in the game.
The thing that this game comes down to will be the offenses. The Twins big slugger Miguel Sano is coming off an injury and I don’t expect much from him tonight. That hurts when the Yankees have Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez coming into this game in good form.
New York is a -250 favorite in this game for a reason. I think that there is a big value in the Twins +250 because I think these Wild Card games are more of a coin flip than anything else. The better team doesn’t always win. That said, I won’t be betting on them as I believe in the talent of Luis Severino and I think he’ll do well tonight.
Instead, we’ll be taking the under 7.5 runs in this one. These games are usually tight with very little run scoring. There have been 10 Wild Card games in history and only three have had more than seven runs scored.