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Welcome to another edition of NHL Quick Bets.
Quick note for all the new followers from BetNHL.ca – prior to me and Scott going over all the plays each day, we both do a quick write-ups of the games and our initial thoughts on them and what we think we’d like to bet.
After comparing and discussing, we dive into the games that much more. What I post here are my notes each morning prior to talking to Scott. You’ll see plays here that won’t make it to BetNHL.ca, or plays on BetNHL.ca that are the complete opposite at times – although that is very rare.
These are essentially just my notes on the games and starting points. I only have a quick glance at advanced metrics for example, as opposed to when we like a pick when I dive way more into them and more. I only post these on days where I don’t write up the tips over at BetNHL.ca.
Let’s look at todays games:
Flyers vs Lightning:
Tampa are playing like the type of team we expected them to be at the beginning of the season. Philly are stumbling a tad at the moment but carry the momentum in with that Flames win. Tight one. Odds seem a bit too favourable in Tampas direction for me. But the value just isn’t there on the Flyers.
Canadiens vs Penguins:
Habs performed a bit better at home lately. Still piss poor. But then so are the Penguins. At +131, I think the Habs are well worth a play here. Penguins have lost to like the Senators recently etc. Just a little value spot.
Panthers vs Devils:
After stuttering four games in a row, Panthers bounced back strong with the win over the Islanders. Now they look to get revenge against the Devils who just beat them. Devils to their credit have played well lately. Problem is Panthers are missing Barkov which is very tough. Bernier in net for Devils I expect. A team often plays strong that game missing a key player. Barkov is a loss, but I still like Panthers in Regulation.
Leafs vs Rangers:
God – are the Leafs someone I’m going to be able to trust? They’re actually starting to perform well. If I was backing them here I’d have to take them in regulation. Surprised they are such heavy favourites here against a Rangers team performing well.
Rangers 6-2-2 on the road too and very good. Honestly I find it hard to bet against the Leafs at the moment especially with Campbell in net. I do think there is value on this Rangers line. Especially when we know historically Leafs don’t show up. Just as you buy into them they throw up a dud or take a mulligan.
Sabres vs Flames:
I miss that period where the Sabres were crushing it. Flames stumbling a bit in their last 5 though with just the lone regulation win. I want to say there is value in the Sabres but I feel less good about it than the Rangers bet. I think Flames play a better defensive game here.
Blues vs Sharks:
Crazy to see the slump the Blues are in. Not sure I want to touch with this one with all the changes going through the Sharks right now with players returning, plus that Wild win. If Sharks were like +160 or something similar I’d probably roll the dice on them honestly – but I just as easily see the Blues getting back on track here. Conflicting one, happy to skip.
Wild vs Stars:
Stars come in with two solid wins in a row. I think I said last week it seemed like the perfect spot for Stars to get their first regulation win over Philly and they did so. Slight underdogs here. Their road performances haven’t been bad. +120 seems correct price here though.
Coyotes vs Jackets:
Jackets just not a team I feel confident about backing in regulation at the moment. Especially when you know the Coyotes will be focused on building off that victory. Plus I am sure the 8-2 headlines are pinned in the locker room.
Oilers vs Jets:
Jets have been killer lately, Oilers struggling although doing well on the bounce back. I actually quite like the value on the Jets here. In saying that – Oilers are going to come in fast and furious. I would take Over 1.5 goals in 1st period on this one. Odds are -140 which are weak though for such a high variant play.
Ducks vs Hurricanes:
With the Ducks offense flying, I like Over 5.5 goals in this one at first glance.
Knights vs Red Wings:
Knights should do the business, but the odds don’t make it worth a play.