PDC 2013 World Championship Day Nine Premium Picks.
Well, we started the second round of the PDC World Championship with a bang. Andy Hamilton left it late, but his 138 checkout beat the line, and we had our first winner. I felt incredibly sorry for Daryl Gurney, as his performance deserved a better result than a 4-1 defeat. He even out-180’d Dave Chisnall, hitting 11 to Chissy’s 10. But it wasn’t meant to be for the Northern Irishman. I still think he was a value price, and if he qualifies through Q-School in January, he’s definitely one for the future. And although we didn’t have a bet on the Gary Anderson match, it’s safe to say John Bowles was another unlucky loser, with the Scotsman winning 4-3. It was far tighter than I had thought, and it was a great match. The evening session made the day even better, with Terry Jenkins restoring my faith in him, with a very impressive 4-1 over John Part. Jenkins will take some beating in this kind of form. Robert Thornton got us another winning with his 136 checkout in his sudden-death leg win over Paul Nicholson. Another fantastic advert for the game of darts. And then Phil Taylor struggled over the line against Jerry Hendriks, winning 4-1, with an average of just over 90. Hardly awe-inspiring, but it was enough, and he’ll be looking to rest up over Christmas and come back in better form, as his main competitors are stepping up their games.
The Premium Picks went 3-1 yesterday, taking them to 16-13 after eight days of the PDC 2013 World Championship, with a profit of +14.57 units.
Kevin Painter (15) Vs Ronnie Baxter (18).
This is a battle of the PDC grinders, with both men capable of some great darts mixed with some shocking darts. They’ve done the rounds in the darts world, and are familiar with each other’s games.
Kevin Painter looked good in his first round win, easing past Leung Chen Nam with an impressive average of 94.97. It was good to see, considering a lot of the big names haven’t put in strong performances against the qualifiers, but Painter was professional about his task, hitting 4 maximums and taking out a 160 finish. He dropped 2 legs, which isn’t bad at all. He’s had a good year, and the Premier League Darts experience he’s gained has proved to be invaluable. He’ll be confident here, and I don’t blame him.
Ronnie Baxter is another man who will be looking for a big run here to consolidate his position in the rankings. His year hasn’t been too bad, but he could have done better in the TV tournaments. That being said, his performance against Dennis Priestley was decent. He came through 3-1, should have been 3-0, with an average of 88.72, and 3 maximums. It wasn’t a bad performance, but he was pushed all the way by Priestley; Baxter showing real grit to get through, which was a welcome sight for a man who can have mental demons when matches go against him.
Just going by the first round, Kevin Painter is the justified favourite. But the interesting thing here is the head-to-head. As you’d expect, these men have played each other 26 times, and Baxter has won 18 times. While there’s no denying Painter was impressive in the first round, he was only playing a qualifier, and Baxter will be a tougher opponent. It’s going to be close, and I think we have to side with the outsider here, as Baxter represents just a bit of value, as I have both men, when they’re both playing well, evenly matched.
Ronnie Baxter to beat Kevin Painter: 6/5 @
Recommend: 1 unit.
Mark Webster (10) Vs Colin Lloyd (23).
A match between two men that had two contrasting first round matches. One man flourished on the stage in spite of recent form, while the other was terrible at times, and lived up to his recent form.
You would never have guessed Mark Webster was in danger of dropping out of the Top 16 with his performance in the first round. He destroyed the in-form Ian White with a 97 average, with 7 maximums and a highest finish of 145. Needless to say, I didn’t expect utter dominance from the Welshman given his recent results. If his game has clicked into place, there could be no stopping Webster, and he’ll be happy with his second round draw.
Colin Lloyd’s average of 94.22 doesn’t tell the entire story. You’d think he played well to average that, but the truth is that he was incredibly patchy, and was lucky not to lose to Darin Young. When Lloyd was good, he was great, but when he was bad, he would have lost to Dave Harrington. Well, maybe not, but you get the point! Lloyd his 5 180s in those 5 sets, with a highest checkout of 124.
If both men play as they did in the first round, Mark Webster should breeze through. As I mentioned, Lloyd was lucky not to lose, and that was with Darin Young playing distinctly average. Webster wasn’t average, he was great, and if he plays the same, he’ll punish Jaws and it could be over very quickly. There’s no real value on the outright, but I think Webster on the handicap looks good, because if the same Mark Webster turns up, he’ll easily break Lloyd a ew times, which would be enough to win by 2 sets or more.
Mark Webster -1.5 sets to beat Colin Lloyd: 11/10 @
Recommend: 2 units.
Raymond van Barneveld (13) Vs Brendan Dolan (20).
An easy to predict second round match, and Brendan Dolan really won’t be happy with this with his opponent hitting the top average in the first round.
Raymond van Barneveld, I don’t know where to begin. His first round performance was unbelievable, and even though I was confident he would win, I couldn’t have predicted an average of 108.31 and 8 maximums, all in just 10 legs. He’s got form here, of course, and he managed to put down his shocking loss to James Richardson behind him. There would be no stopping Barney in that kind of form, and on the back of his win at the Grand Slam of Darts, this could be Barney’s time back in the spotlight.
Brendan Dolan, as ever, was incredibly workman-like in his 3-0 win over Mark Jones. He averaged a respectable 92.98, and only dropped 1 leg, hitting 3 maximums in the process. Dolan has come into his own in the past couple of years, and he’ll be pleased with how he’s playing. However, he’s going to face a much stiffer test than his first round match, as Barney will definitely take more than 1 leg off him. It’s all about Dolan taking his game to the next level. If he can do that, he might just stand a chance against the rampant Dutchman.
The problem is, I don’t think Dolan has much more in his game. Most of the time, he’s amid-to-high 80s player, so his first round performance might just have been all the game Dolan has. And if that’s it, Barney can drop down a gear and still win this. There’s no value, as expected, and even the handicap is shocking. The 180s line offers no value, as we’d be solely relying on Barney to get us over the line. So I would just sit back and enjoy watching a master at work, because Barney in his full pomp is a sight to behold.
Recommend: No bet.
Wes Newton (6) Vs Scott Rand
Wes Newton would have been pleased if you told him he’d be facing one of the few non-seeded players left in the draw. However, he won’t be happy knowing it’s Scott Rand!
Newton didn’t look to convincing in his 3-0 win over Johhny Haines. Haines had chances to punish Newton, but he was let off the hook time after time. But Newton beat the man put in front of him, and he didn’t get out of second gear. He’s got plenty of scope left in his game, and if/when he starts hitting the maximums, he’ll be a tough man to beat. He’ll definitely need to improve on his 86.90 average if he wants to progress.
Scott Rand was impressive against Kim Huybrechts. Not only was his scoring solid, but his finishing was unbelievably solid, too. Double 16 was a firm favourite, which he hardly missed. His 97.82 average was one of the highest of the first round, and it was thanks to his consistency. While he may not have hammered the maximums in, he hit 10 140s and rarely missed a double. The worry here is that his performance was a bit of a fluke, considering the year he’s had which hasn’t been great. He might “bounce” to use horse racing terminology and just capitulate against Newton. There is a chance of that, as it’s happened before when out-of-form players suddenly pull a great performance out of nowhere.
Although there is a worry about Rand bouncing, I think there’s a lot of value to be had in backing him. He’s a class act on his day, and we might just be seeing the form that was predicted for him this time last year. Sure, he might bounce, but Newton isn’t the hottest player on the tour, and if Newton plays like he did in the first round, Rand can still play poorly and grind out a win. The odds are just too big, and I’ve been waiting to oppose Newton.
Scott Rand to beat Wes Newton: 11/8 @
Recommend: 2 units
Simon Whitlock (5) Vs Colin Osborne (28).
22nd of December, 2009 and it was a battle of the Wizards. These two met at the Ally Pally, and Whitlock won their first encounter 3-1. That time it was a first round match, this time it’s the same date and it’s a second round match. Since then, both men have had contrasting fortunes, with one climbing up the rankings and winning his share of tournaments, while the other struggles to stay in the Top 32.
Simon Whitlock wasn’t the most impressive of winners in the first round. There must be something about playing the prelim match winners that makes some of the better players switch off. However, he won 3-0 with a 95.50 average, but looked troubled by his Japanese opponent from time to time. That being said, a 95.50 average is nothing to be sniffed at in the first round of the World Championship, but the 2 maximums were a bit out of character for the Aussie. He also missed his share of doubles, which, again, is out of character. Maybe this sterner test will bring more out of him.
Colin Osborne, like Wes Newton, was a lucky, lucky man to win his match 3-0. Lourence Ilagan, although another qualifier, put up a great fight, and should have taken at least one set from Ossie. But Osborne done the job professionally, taking out a 164 finish when Ilagan was waiting on a finish which effectively put the match to bed. While Osborne was patchy, his scoring was solid, and his average of 94.51 reflects that. He’ll be happy with the win, considering how dreadful his recent form has been. The worry for him is that he’s facing a man who seems to have his number. But if Osborne can keep his average up against Whitlock, he might just stand a chance.
Whitlock should take this, and take it comfortably. Osborne had to fight for his first round win, while Whitlock was never really troubled, so we know Whitlock can and will raise his game a few more points, which would be too much for Osborne, as I think we saw the best average he could manage in the first round. Now, it’s not all about the averages, but when you consider Whitlock has won their last 5 meetings, it’s safe to say Osborne’s game, when it matters, just doesn’t stack up to the Aussie. But there’s no value on the outrights of the handicaps, so we’ll not be backing Whitlock. However, the 180 line is a bit high at 10.5, as both men didn’t really trouble the maximums line in the first round, and I don’t think we’re going to be too many legs. There’s a tiny bit of value there, as I would expect a single figure number of maximums out of this match.
Total 180s in Whitlock Vs Osborne match under 10.5: 10/11 @
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Adrian Lewis (2) Vs Denis Ovens (31)
Last match of the night, and I had been hoping to take Adrian Lewis on. However, Denis Ovens doesn’t pose too much of a threat, and there is no value at all to be found for this match, as you’d expect with the World Champion taking on a man who isn’t 100% fit and is seriously out of form. Just sit back with a beer (or your drink of choice) and look for some signs that Lewis is worth opposing in the third round.
Recommend: No bet.
That’s it for Day Nine of the PDC 2013 World Championship. Thank you for subscribing, old subscribers and new, and enjoy the darts!