PDC 2013 World Championship Day Ten Premium Picks.
If Day Eight of the 2013 World Championship was a great day, Day Nine was full of disappointment. We started off with Ronnie Baxter being unable to close out the match against Kevin Painter, even though he was 2-0 up in the final set. That set the tone for the day, as Mark Webster lost to Colin Lloyd, never mind winning on the handicap. We didn’t have a bet on the Raymond van Barneveld match, but he was a solid winner over Brendan Dolan. Then Wes Newton proved he is a real threat with his demolition of Scott Rand. Yes, Rand was proof the bounce-factor exists in darts, but that’s taking nothing away from Newton. But that was another defeat for us. But at least Simon Whitlock and Colin Osborne’s low 180 scoring contest get us a vital win to keep us from a complete blow-out. And then we saw Adrian Lewis struggle on his doubles, but still get past Denis Ovens 4-1.
Again, another early start, with the last of the second round matches, and the first two third round matches. It starts off incredibly slow, literally, with Justin Pipe taking on Mark Walsh, then James Wade takes on Steve Beaton in what could be a good match. Then we have Dean Winstanley taking on Vincent van der Voort in the final match of the afternoon. The evening session starts with the last of the second round matches, with Michael van Gerwen taking on Peter Wright, and that is going to be a huge match. Then the third round matches start, with Andy Hamilton facing Terry Jenkins, in a match I can’t wait to see. And finally, Robert Thornton will hope to continue his great form against Phil Taylor in the last match of the night.
The Premium Picks went 1-3 yesterday, taking them to 17-16 after nine days of the PDC 2013 World Championship, with a profit of +10.48 units.
Justin Pipe (11) Vs Mark Walsh (22).
If anyone is excited about this over all the other matches, I’m a bit worried. Well, unless you have a bet on Pipe or Walsh in the outright market. And if you do, good luck!
Justin Pipe was anything but convincing in his win over Andy Jenkins. He was lucky that Jenkins was unbelievably shocking. Pipe averaged 84.23 and managed the massive total of 1 maximum. But Pipe is one of those players that doesn’t need to put in a huge average to grind out a win, as he tends to bring players into a scrap. He was playing good darts for most of the year, but he did go off the boil in patches, and hopefully his first round performance isn’t a sign of that.
Mark Walsh was also incredibly scrappy in his game against Darren Webster. His average of 88.58 should have let Webster into the game, and he’s lucky Webster didn’t capitalise on it. He also only hit 2 maximums, so it was clear his scoring was in a bit of trouble.
This is going to be an out-and-out scrap, and it isn’t going to be pretty. Both men’s first round performances were expected, and we actually backed Darren Webster against Mark Walsh. Walsh scraped through, while Pipe was never troubled, even though he wasn’t playing well at all. I think Pipe should win this, but both men are going to make it tough. There’s no value on that market, but where I think we’re going to see a win is the total 180s market. Between them they hit 3 in the first round, and I don’t think we’ll get a high-scoring match. The line is 9.5, so we’ll take a dabble on that to start the day.
Under 9.5 180s in Pipe/Walsh match: 10/11 @
Recommend: 1.5 units.
James Wade (3) Vs Steve Beaton (30)
It’s amazing to think that the former World Champion in this match isn’t James Wade, but Steve Beaton. But that’s the reality of it!
I’m sure we all know the problems James Wade has had over the past couple of years, and how it’s affected his game. He struggled at the Grand Slam of Darts, but you wouldn’t have guessed it with his 3-0 win over Peter Hudson in the first round. His average of 91.09 was solid enough, and what we’ve come to expect from James Wade when he’s not pushed. Hudson never troubled Wade, and his 4 maximums is actually impressive considering the short match he had. It was a solid performance, and although he was a bit lax on his doubles at times, he was never in trouble. He’ll have seen it as a good warm-up after being in poor form as of late.
Steve Beaton was one of a host of seeds who were very, very lucky to win 3-0 in the first round. That’s not to say he didn’t deserve to win, but Kyle Anderson did deserve at least a set in that match. Beaton averaged 87.54 and his 5 maximums in what was a tight match. He looked weak on his doubles, which almost let Anderson in at times, but he was composed enough to see the match out. He’ll have to step his game up against Wade, but he’s capable of it, and if he can get his doubling sorted out, he’ll be confident of pulling off a bit of an upset.
This is a match I think will be closer than the bookies have it. Wade’s troubles are evident to everyone, and he did play well against Peter Hudson, but he was never pushed. Beaton WAS pushed, and he fought through with a lot of determination. Sure, he wasn’t great, but he’s surely a bit better than an 11/4 shot, especially as Wade’s form isn’t great. So I think we have to have a small dabble there, but there’s one market that I think is completely out of whack – the total 180s market. Both men can be prolific maximum scorers, and the line of 9.5 just seems way out of line, considering they hit 9 between them in the first round, which was best of 5. They’ll have more legs to score maximums in, and I think the line will be smashed.
Steve Beaton to beat James Wade: 11/4 @
Recommend: 1 unit.
Over 9.5 180s in Wade/Beaton match: 4/5 @
Recommend: 4 units.
Dean Winstanley Vs Vincent van der Voort (19).
The last unseeded player standing, but I don’t think Vincent van der Voort will be happy with the draw at all.
What can I say about Dean Winstanley’s performance against Mervyn King? Not only was it impressive in terms of scoring, but he showed the kind of fight that will take him deep in the big tournaments. His average of 91.76 was decent when you consider he missed a fair few doubles, and the game did go all the way. He hit 10 maximums in the match, which is, of course, one of the main features of Winstanley’s game. The Dean Winstanley that got to the semi-finals of the Grand Slam of Darts turned up to the World Championship, and I think he’s thinking of a semi-final place, at the very least, if not the final.
Vincent van der Voort had a potentially tricky tie against Stuart Kellett, but he was let off thanks to a heap of missed doubles from the Englishman. VDV’s average of 89.01 wasn’t too bad, but he only scored 2 180s, which, for VDV, isn’t that great. He’s better than that, though, and he should make a game of it, as long as he’s at peak fitness. That’s the worry, that Van der Voort’s illness start to trouble him. But if it doesn’t, he’ll sore heavily and put pressure on Winstanley.
I think this should be straightforward for Winstanley. He’s playing well, scoring well, and bar a few blips against Mervyn King, he’s finishing well. There’s no value on Winstanley, however, so we’ll avoid that market. Where I want to go is the Total 180s market, as Winstnaley alone his 10 in the first round. He’ll need VDV to weight in with a handful, but I don’t think the 10.5 line will be too much trouble.
Over 10.5 180s in Dean Winstanley Vs Vincent van der Voort match: 5/6 @
Recommend: 2 units.
Michael van Gerwen (7) Vs Peter Wright (26)
This is a huge match for both men, for different reasons. Van Gerwen needs to live up to the hype, Wright just needs the money for the Order of Merit.
Michael van Gerwen was just a tad disappointing in his first round match against Paul Lim. The veteran pushed the Dutchman all the way, even though it was a 3-0 scoreline, and Van Gerwen really looked dodgy on his doubles, even though his scoring was solid. The Dutchman ended up with an average of 90.64, and it was down to all those doubles that he missed. He’ll no doubt come good over the longer format, but his double troubles will be a worry to anyone that’s backed him on the outright market. He did hit 4 maximums over the 14 legs he played, as well as 10 scores of 140+, so the scoring really wasn’t an issue. He won’t get let off like he did against Lim, though, although I think he may have had the same problem as some of the other players who faced qualifiers – it’s hard to get your A-game going for a match you think should be a cakewalk.
Peter Wright was a convincing winner over Arron Monk. He won 3-0, dropped 3 legs, hit 4 maximums with a highest checkout of 140 and put in an average of 94.95. It’s the type of performance we’ve come to expect from the Scotsman on the TV, and he’s a tough man to beat. He’s had a good year, and a good run here will set him up well for 2013, and he knows that. The worry here is his inconsistency, because while he can play great, high-scoring darts, he doesn’t always string two great games back-to-back, which the best in the world can do. That being said, he’s a tough competitor, and Van Gerwen will have his hands full.
This is going to be a fantastic match, and I think Van Gerwen is going to have his hands full, especially if he plays how he did in the first round, as Wright is not going to give him as many chances should he miss his doubles. I think Van Gerwen might just be in a spot of trouble here, as there’s so much weight on his shoulders that the pressure might just be getting to him, while Wright has nothing to lose, everything to gain. Wright’s price is far too big. There’s also another market that looks interesting, and that’s Player To Score Most 180s. Van Gerwen scored 4, Wright scored 4, MVG played 14 legs, Wright played 12. Van Gerwen is also going for a lot more cover shots, so he’s more likely to hit those 177s, and 174s, while Wright just loves hammering the treble 20. The price on Wright to win that market is just huge.
Peter Wright to beat Michael van Gerwen 4/1 @
Recommend: 1 unit.
Peter Wright to score more 180s than Michael van Gerwen 9/4 @
Recommend: 2 units.
Andy Hamilton (8) Vs Terry Jenkins (9).
The third round starts here, with two of the PDC’s big guns facing off. The rankings have done their job, and I think they both expected this as their third round match-up. This is going to be a classic.
Andy Hamilton struggled in the first round against James Richardson, averaging 90.24, which was solid, but it was his doubling that let him down. However, in his second round match against Richie Burnett, The Hammer came to life, averaging 97.27 and crushing the Welshman. Hamilton’s doubling was much better, hitting 45% of them and putting in a 138, a 120, a 110 and a 108. It was a far cry from the first round where Richardson just wasn’t able to capitalise on Hamilton’s mistakes. Still, Hamilton’s only dropped 16 legs in two matches, which isn’t bad at all, considering he’s played 9 sets.
Terry Jenkins is playing like the man who reached those PDC Major finals in the past; his scoring is clicking, his finishing is clicking and he’s just playing like a man with confidence in his game. His second round performance was even better than his first round performance, going from a 94.31 average to a 98.18 average, which proved to be far too much for John Part. For someone like Jenkins to dismantle a player as accomplished as John Part 4-1, it shows how well he’s playing.
Hamitlon leads the head-to-head between the two 11-6, but Jenkins has won 3 out of the last 5. On the stats there’s little to choose between them, but I think Jenkins’ performance against John Part just smacks of a different class, and as I said earlier, a man playing with a lot of confidence in his game. I think Jenkins is just far too big, as I’d have them almost 10/11 the pair going by the tournament so far. We’ve got to take The Bull, simply because of the value, and it’s going to be a close one.
Terry Jenkins to beat Andy Hamilton: 11/8 @
Recommend: 2 units.
Phil Taylor (1) Vs Robert Thornton (17)
It’s deja vu all over again. 5th meeting between the two this year, and the third in a Major. These two are becoming old foes, and both men have something to prove.
Phil Taylor, after two matches, has a tournament average of 92.08, and 4 maximums to his name. Is this the same kind of form that’s taken him to 15 World Championships? Well, no. But, to be fair, he’s capable of much better, and it’s no doubt a case of when rather than if. He was extremely industrious against Jerry Hendriks, and his average of 90.23 was a sign that his scoring just wasn’t firing. When you also take into account his 35% doubling, and it really wasn’t a vintage Taylor performance.
As for Robert Thornton, he followed up his first round destruction of Magnus Caris with a completely contrasting 4-3 win over Paul Nicholson which went all the way to a sudden-death leg. That being said, he didn’t look in trouble against Nicholson, and his 94.79 average was a sign that he was playing well. He hit 41% of his doubles, and 13 maximums. It was the maximum scoring that was the highlight of his performance, and what got him over the line against Nicholson.
I can’t work out whether Taylor’s not playing well due to a lack of form, or if it’s because he hasn’t had to raise his game due to so-called weaker opposition. Thornton has played great darts in his first two matches, but Paul Nicholson is a far tougher opponent than Jerry Hendriks. I’m not one to write off Phil Taylor, as I think he’s still the man to beat. However, Thornton has the mental advantage on the stage. Most players are beaten before they get on the stage to play Taylor, but Thornton isn’t, as he showed at the UK Open and the World Grand Prix. Out of the two, Thornton is playing the far superior darts, and I think he’s overpriced to get his third TV win over Taylor this year. While Taylor is rightly favourite, 11/4 for Thornton is just madness!
Robert Thornton to beat Phil Taylor: 11/4 @
Recommend: 1 unit.
That’s it for Day Ten of the PDC 2013 World Championship. Thank you for subscribing, old subscribers and new, and enjoy the darts! I’ll be back after Christmas, so until then, happy Christmas, and enjoy the darts!