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PDC 2014 World Championship Day Ten Premium Picks.
Last night, what a night not only in terms of darts, but in terms of a perfect night for the Premium Picks. We got off to a great start thanks to Richie Burnett getting us over the line almost single-handedly with 9 180s, and Andy Hamilton hitting 3. That power-scoring helped Burnett to an impressive 4-1 win over the former finalist. Could this be the former World Champion’s year to return to the big time? Well, the draw has been kind to him now that Phil Taylor is out, that’s for sure. Robert Thornton was clinical against Beau Anderson, and we were on his 4-0 win. Thornton, like Burnett, will be loving the draw, and he’ll also be confident of a run to another PDC Major final. Finally, we had an early contender for match of the tournament, with Kim Huybrechts pushing Ian White all the way to a final set. But White got over the line in the final set, and it was a high-quality encounter with great finishing, great scoring, and White is going to be truly confident looking at the draw. So, it’s three men playing well all in the same section of the draw. The World Championship is definitely starting to warm up. So we’re now 16-14 with profit of +10.17 unit for the Premium Picks.
Sunday heralds another double session, with 6 matches on the card. We start with an interesting match between Brendan Dolan and Gary Anderson. Kevin Painter lines up against Paul Nicholson and then Simon Whitlock looks to continue his charge against the qualifier Jarkko Komula. The evening session starts with Wes Newton and John Part, followed by John Henderson and Mark Webster. Finally, it’s Michael van Gerwen facing Kevin McDine in what could be a test for the Dutchman.
Brendan Dolan Vs Gary Anderson.
First match on deck, and it’s actually more interesting than it would be a couple of years ago. Before Anderson’s form collapse, it would have been a very different story, with the Scot being the short-price favourite. Now, Dolan is one of the form players on the ProTour and Anderson is treading water in the PDC rankins, unable to string several wins together. As it stands, I think it’s very, very tight here, and I can’t split them. Dolan’s 96.72 average and Anderson’s 97.83 were impressive, both men won 3-0 and both men beat experienced PDC campaigners who have seen better days. I do think Anderson is short enough, given that the big part of his game, his 180 scoring, has been curtailed. Anderson averaged 1 a set against Mark Dudbridge. Dolan, on the other hand, has never been known for his 180 scoring. He put in 3 against Colin Osborne. For me, that was Dolan over-performing. I think it could go 4-2 either way here, but I’d hate to tip it up, simply my heart says Dolan, but my head says Anderson. We’ll go for the option that I like, though, that both men won’t fire in a lot of 180s. In the past, Anderson would be good for around 10 in this format, but I can see 5 or 6, at best, and I can’t see a barrow-load from Dolan.
Under 9.5 180s in Dolan Vs Anderson match Best price Evens (Various)
Recommend: 1 unit.
Kevin Painter Vs Paul Nicholson.
A tight, tight match here, against two men that, on their day, can hang with the best of them. Kevin Painter has been there, done that, and Paul Nicholson has shown the promise for long enough. Painter averaged 98.59 in his demolition of Tomas Seyler, while Nicholson put in 96.82 against Stuart Kellett, which he ended up winning 3-1. On paper it’s close, and I think it’s going to be one of those 4-3 matches. We’re definitely going to get a lot of legs, and we’re going to see some big checkouts, as both men are capable and both men will need them.
Highest checkout in Painter Vs Nicholson match over 130.5 Best price 5/6 (Various)
Recommend: 1 unit.
Simon Whitlock Vs Jarkko Komula.
It’s one of the last real one-sided matches of the tournament, as far as I’m concerned, and I can only see a win for Whitlock here. He played well in Round One, averaging 97.35 and never looked troubled by Ross Smith, even though Smith wasn’t playing poorly. Jarkko Komula, well, he brushed Mark Walsh aside, but he averaged 84.57 in what was anything but a solid performance. However, he did enough, scored heavily when he needed to and caused an upset. I can’t see another upset here, but Whitlock can switch off against players like Komula, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Finn snatching a set from the Aussie, before Whitlock finishes him off. No more than one set, however!
Simon Whitlock to beat Jarkko Komula 4-1 Best price 9/4 (Ladbrokes)
Recommend: 0.5 unit.
Wes Newton Vs John Part.
I’ll try and be excited about this match, but it’s between two players that bore me to tears. Part, the grinder, will average around the 88 mark, Newton will play out of his skin to start and then slow down and lose the plot. I’d love to see a Part win here, but I can’t see it, simply because Newton has a knack of getting through these kind of matches. He loves a scrap, and he’s going to get it. It’s going to be close, we’re going to get a lot of legs and I think we’re going to see both men hitting some big checkouts. The fact is, both men aren’t huge power-scorers, so we’re going to see a lot of 140+ finishes being attempted, and both men are more than capable of knocking them in. So, instead of cheering on either player, we’ll just look fora big finish.
Highest checkout in Newton Vs Part match over 130.5 Best price 5/6 (Various)
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Mark Webster Vs John Henderson.
This is a match that I’ve been looking forward to, as I knew how the bookies would price it up, and I think they’ve priced it up completely wrong. Mark Webster is favourite here, but by all accounts he should be out on his arse, if Mensu Suljovic could have shown some bottle. To be fair to Webster, his 150 checkout in the final set was impressive, but he wasn’t looking like a former World Champion for most of that match. But Webster’s average of 86.7 won’t be getting him much further, and he needs to kick it up a gear. He does have it in him, but he’s not shown it often enough recently. John Henderson, well, he was in the match of Round One against Dave Chisnall. He scored heavily, averaged 91.62 and hit 6 180s. For me, it was a good, solid performance, and yes, if Chisnall had some bottle, Henderson would be out, but there was something in his performance that impressed more than Webster. Add in that Chisnall is a class above Suljovic and the form lines impress me much more for Henderson. The prices are all wrong here, Henderson is great value and I’ll be playing accordingly.
John Henderson to beat Mark Webster Best price 6/4 (Victor Chandler)
Recommend: 2 units.
Michael van Gerwen Vs Kevin McDine.
Last match of the night, and it’s one that I can’t get my head around in the way it’s been priced up. Yes, Michael van Gerwen is the tournament favourite, yes, Kevin McDine hasn’t been near the top of the PDC, and yes, MvG should be a short-price favourite. However, McDine played well in the first round, Van Gerwen placed distinctly average, and, in fact, the Dutchman hasn’t been playing amazing darts for a few months now. I think he’s looking a bit more human, and McDine is more than capable of taking at least one set, perhaps more, from MvG. I’ll be snapping up any of the ridiculous prices on offer for McDine +3.5 sets, as a player of his quality should not be losing 4-0, especially after a good first round performance.
Kevin McDine +3.5 sets to beat Michael van Gerwen Best price 8/11 (Ladbrokes)
Recommend: 4 units.
That’s all for Day Ten of the Premium Picks. I’ll be back with more Premium Picks tomorrow.