[Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
Yesterday seemed like one of those days. Yes, we got a nice winner in the last match of the night, but if Whitlock had hit the doubles at the crucial times, we’d have been having a nice 2-1 day instead of a 1-2 day. A couple of millimetres cost us. Still, we move on to day ten of the competition and this is where the matches start to look fantastic.
Mark Webster Vs Kirk Shepherd
R1 – Webster beat Mark Walsh 3-2
R2 – Webster beat Peter Manley 4-2
R1 – Shepherd bt Scott Burnett 3-0
R2 – Shepherd beat John Part 4-1
While this doesn’t look like a classic on paper, it has the makings of a close one. Shepherd took the scalp of a woeful John Part, while Webster finished strong against a potentially dangerous Peter Manley. Shepherd hasn’t been playing great darts, but he’s been winning convincingly when you look at the scorelines. This will be close, but there is one market that seems to be a bit out of whack. Shepherd has hit 8 180s in 32 legs in his two matches, while Webster has hit 2 in 43 legs, yet Webster is favourite to hit the most 180s. Pricing it up, we’d have Shepherd as marginal favourite, as although he has a tendency to throw some horrific darts, he manages to put in a couple of 180s every now and then, which is more than Webster has done.
Kirk Shepherd to score more 180s then Mark Webster: 7/4 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 2 units @ 7/4.
Terry Jenkins Vs Simon Whitlock
R1 – Jenkins bt Paul Nicholson 3-2
R2 – Jenkins bt Darin Young 4-0
R1 – Whitlock bt Colin Osborne 3-1
R2 – Whitlock bt Wayne Jones 4-1
Match of the day? Quite possibly. Two heavy scorers taking on each other – one is a stalwart of the PDC and the other has made a name for himself in the BDO. Whitlock has impressed everyone with his darts in his two matches this tournament, whilst Jenkins hasn’t set the world alight, although he’s done more than enough to win his matches. Both men can score heavily and both men can take out big finishes when needed and that is what the match might come down to. Whitlock is favourite with the bookies and rightly so, even if only marginally. They have those prices right, so we won’t get involved in the match betting. There is one book that has a nice line up compared to the rest when it comes to the highest checkout, so we’re going to play that market.
Highest checkout over 126.5 in the Jenkins Vs Whitlock match: 4/6 @ Ladbrokes.
Recommendation: 2 units @ 4/6.
Co Stompe Vs Mark Dudbridge
R1 – Stompe bt Steve Maish 3-1
R2 – Stompe bt Mervyn King 4-2
R1 – Dudbridge bt Andree Welge 3-0
R2 – Dudbridge bt Alan Tabern 4-3
Yet again, another match that might get the juices flowing and it could be a great end to the afternoon session. Stompe pulled off a bit of a shock when he beat Mervyn King in the second round, while Dudbridge survived a scare against Alan Tabern. The bookies make Stompe favourite, as do we. On his day The Matchstick can play fantastic darts, take out some big checkouts and hammer the 180s. Dudbridge has been there and done it at the World Championships, so this match will hold no worries for him. Stompe holds a 3-1 lead over Dudbridge in the head to head and that might be the telling factor. However, 4/6 isn’t the most appealng of prices, so we’ll be happy to sit back, watch the match and enjoy a cup of tea while watching it.
Recommendation: No bet.
Ronnie Baxter Vs Colin Lloyd
R1 – Baxter bt Haruki Muramatsu 3-0
R2 – Baxter bt Gary Anderson 4-0
R1 – Lloyd bt Magnus Caris 3-1
R2 – Lloyd bt Denis Ovens 4-3
Yet another intriguing game. Baxter produced a great performance to do one of the pre-tournament favourites 4-0, whilst Lloyd struggled to beat Denis Ovens. Baxter should be able to cap off a good year with a win here, but Lloyd won’t make it easy. Both men haven’t hit huge checkouts and Lloyd especially has been struggling with his doubling, so we don’t expect to see too many big finishes. The fact the line for this is roughly the same as the Jenkins/Whitlock match means we have to have a dabble on the unders.
Highest checkout under 129.5 in Lloyd Vs Baxter match: 10/11 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 1 unit @ 10/11.
James Wade Vs Andy Hamilton.
R1 – Wade bt Steve Brown 3-1
R2 – Wade bt Michael van Gerwen 4-2
R1 – Hamilton bt Osmann Kijamet 3-0
R2 – Hamilton bt Steve Beaton 4-1
We know, we’re sounding like a broken record, but another great match and it’s two of the heaviest scorers in the game facing off. Both men managed a very healthy 180s total in their second round match, which should be an indication of what is to come tomorrow. Wade has shown a lot of people he’s taking this tournament a lot more seriously than he has done in the past and that’s been reflected in the relative ease of his wins. However, he won’t have it his own way against Hamilton, who looked impressive in his two wins so far. Wade holds an 11-6 advantage in the head to head, but Hamilton seems a bit overpriced at 3/1. The thing is, if Hamilton gets his head in front, Wade’s head may drop as has happened in the past. Hamilton won their last encounter at the GSOD and we like to think he take his scalp again. At the odds, it’s worth a nibble.
Andy Hamilton to beat James Wade: 3/1 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 0.5 unit @ 3/1.
Raymond van Barneveld Vs Kevin Painter
R1 – Van Barneveld bt Warren Parry 3-0
R2 – Van Barneveld bt Brendan Dolan 4-0
R1 – Painter bt Mensur Suljovic 3-1
R2- Painter beat Vincent van der Voort 4-3
Well, we all know Barney hit another 9-darter in his second round match, which he came through quite comfortably. Painter struggled at times against VDV, but at other times looked like a machine, as is evident with his 180 scoring. It’s true to say that in longer matches, Painter can score as heavily as anyone. The problem we have is, we don’t know which Barney will turn up. In fact, a different Barney can turn up in between games, which gives us a problem when finding a bet. Barney should take Painter out, but there’s no value in that and considering Painter has done Barney at this stage in the past, it doesn’t make a worthwhile bet, neither does Painter at 9/4. The 180s market seems spot on, as does the highest checkout market. Even Painter to hit the most 180s doesn’t appeal, so it’s left for us to simply watch the match, enjoy a heavy scoring affair and hopefully count our profits from the rest of our best.
Recommendation: No bet.
Summary: What a day of matches! We really like our bet on Kirk Shepherd, as we honestly think the markets are way, way out on this. Also, if Whitlock can just find the smallest of measurements and get on the other side of the wire, our highest checkout bet looks a certainty.
So, enjoy what is sure to be a fantastic day of darts and happy betting!
Bets made: 17
Profit: +7.65 units.